A wave of artificial intelligence and intelligent automation is reshaping Guangdong province’s demographic dividend, shifting its strength from gathering ordinary labor to attracting high-skilled talent, experts say.

However, amid a nationwide slowdown in population growth, they also cautioned that the nation’s most populous province must remain vigilant against intensifying competition for talent and the inevitable accelerating aging trend.

With a permanent resident population of 128.6 million, 790,000 new residents, and 1 million births, Guangdong ranked first nationwide in all the three categories last year, further widening its demographic advantages over other economic powerhouses such as Jiangsu province.

Lai Miaohua, a research assistant at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences who specializes in sociology and demography, said that although Guangdong has long relied on manufacturing plants to attract migrants during previous decades, the digital economy and smart technology are now injecting fresh momentum into the province’s ability to attract people.

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She noted that the digital economy has created an unprecedented number of high-value jobs. By 2025, Guangdong’s digital economy had exceeded 8 trillion yuan ($1.18 trillion), ranking first in the country for nine consecutive years.

In the field of smart manufacturing, the core industry of AI here is projected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2025, with the region ranking first nationwide in the production of both industrial and service robots.

“What grows in this soil is more than just a handful of internet giants — it’s an entire industrial ecosystem, spanning from chip design and algorithm research and development to intelligent manufacturing and smart-city operations,” said Lai.

“These jobs offer far more value than those on traditional factory assembly lines, and Guangdong’s competitiveness in modern industries holds great appeal to high-end talent.”

Echoing Lai, Lu Jingliang, an associate professor at the Institute for Economic and Social Research of Jinan University, said that the greater requirement for talent in the AI era further underpins Guangdong’s demographic advantage.

With the development of advanced manufacturing, the proportion of college graduates from within the province employed by Guangdong’s manufacturing sector rose from 14.72 percent in 2020 to 19.21 percent in 2025.

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This group of talents includes over 40,000 graduates in fields related to AI, robotics, semiconductors, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy vehicles, and the low-altitude economy, providing strong support for the development of new-quality productive forces.

However, Lu pointed out that last year, 24 provinces across the country experienced negative growth in their permanent resident populations, so competition for talent among regions will become even more intense.

In addition, despite a relatively young population structure, the aging trend in Guangdong is still irreversible. The province is expected to enter a stage of moderate aging by 2030, a few years later than Zhejiang and Jiangsu. This pivotal moment in the region’s demographic transition is expected to have far-reaching implications for its labor market, the social security system, and consumption patterns.

Experts recommend that local governments introduce more policy initiatives to attract talent to emerging fields such as AI and robotics, while continuing to recruit graduates to further build a tiered talent pool.

Lu noted that Guangdong is the only province in the country where the number of births has exceeded one million over the past six years — a clear advantage that is difficult to duplicate. She said she believes that Guangdong should further improve its system of fertility-support policies.

To cope with the intensifying aging trend, Lai said she hopes Guangdong will plan ahead and build an “all-age-friendly” society. Through a range of measures — including accelerating the development of a multi-tier eldercare services system and vigorously promoting the silver economy — older people can also help create a “longevity dividend,” she said.

Contact the writer at bingcun@chinadailyhk.com