Official data put China's '25 per capita GNI above World Bank's '24 benchmark

China is on track to reach high-income status within one to two years, as steady growth and structural upgrading place the country on the cusp of a key developmental milestone, even as external uncertainties add complexity to the outlook, economists said.

"Taking a relatively conservative view, China is likely to reach the threshold of a high-income economy within the next one to two years," said Sun Xuegong, director-general of the department of policy study and consultation at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research. The academy is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission.

Sun said that crossing the threshold would mark "an important milestone" and signal a new phase of development characterized by upgrades to industrial structures and shifts in household consumption patterns, in line with the country's broader push for high-quality growth.

The outlook comes as China is now very close to this key milestone. In the World Bank's classification in July last year, China was ranked as an upper-middle income economy with 2024 per capita gross national income (GNI) at $13,660, versus the 2024 high-income benchmark of $13,935.

In 2025, the country's GNI reached 139.4 trillion yuan ($19.2 trillion), the National Bureau of Statistics said. Using NBS figures, China Daily estimates per capita GNI at 99,109 yuan for 2025, or about $14,503 at current exchange rates — exceeding the 2024 threshold of $13,935.

The final classification depends on the updated benchmarks for 2025 and exchange rate adjustments based on the World Bank's calculation method, allowing the next round of income group updates to be released in July to provide a key observation window for assessing whether China formally enters the high-income category.

International institutions share a cautiously optimistic view. Marshall Mills, senior resident representative of the International Monetary Fund in China, said he saw significant potential for further expansion of China's economy as reforms to improve resource allocation and boost consumption could lift annual GDP growth by nearly 0.5 percentage point.

This will help address the challenges of a shrinking labor force and slowing productivity growth and support the country's prospects of reaching high-income status within the next five years, he said.

Beyond headline income levels, economists and policy advisers stressed that sustaining growth after reaching high-income status will be critical. Some economies have struggled with slowing momentum after crossing the threshold.

Sun, from the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said the key lies in strengthening innovation capacity, which China has prioritized as a strategic priority. The country's steady rise in the Global Innovation Index rankings — where it ranked 10th in 2025 — reflects significant progress that could help it avoid the so-called middle-income trap.

Equally important is maintaining social stability and improving income distribution, Sun said, adding that advancing common prosperity will be crucial to ensuring long-term, sustainable development after achieving higher income levels.

The outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) has demonstrated China's determination of achieving steady mid-to-long-term growth, reiterating China's goal of achieving "mid-level developed country" status by 2035.

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With first-quarter GDP growth resilient at 5 percent despite rising external headwinds, Mao Shengyong, deputy head of the NBS, said that growth driven by technological progress and industrial upgrading will be sustainable going forward.

Zhang Bin, deputy director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that given China's current level of industrialization and production capacity, reaching the World Bank's high-income threshold would be a natural outcome.

Crossing the line does not mark the end of development, Zhang said, adding that China's per capita GNI remains far behind the more than $80,000 in leading advanced economies such as the United States.

"China still faces gaps in frontier technologies and advanced capabilities, requiring continued efforts to catch up with leading economies," he said.

Contact the writers at zhoulanxv@chinadaily.com.cn