Bernard Chan, convener of the Executive Council of Hong Kong, poses for a photograph following a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong, China, on June 17, 2019. (PHOTO/BLOOMBERG)

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is unlikely to see a major exodus to the UK under its new visa program for millions of residents who hold British National (Overseas) passports, with the impact partially offset by new arrivals from the Chinese mainland, according to a top government adviser.

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The actual number of departing Hong Kong people will be “far, far smaller” than current estimates that as many as 1 million people will leave for the UK over the next five years, Bernard Charnwut Chan, a financier and the convener of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s advisory Executive Council, said on Monday. While the territory has seen people flee during past crises, each time “either they return or there’s new immigrants coming in,” he said.

The difference between the exodus of Hong Kong people in the 1990s and the one unfolding today was now there is a large pool of talented mainlanders who can take their place, ExCo convener Bernard Chan said

The difference between the exodus of Hong Kong people in the 1990s and the one unfolding today, Chan said, was now there is a large pool of talented mainlanders who can take their place. He said those leaving now are a mix of people who don’t trust Beijing, who want a better education for their children or who “think they may not be as competitive” in a changing economy that increasingly values skilled mainlanders who can help international firms win business on the Chinese mainland.

“If you look at foreign firms, they’re all hiring mainland returnees,” Chan said. “Their clients are all Chinese from the mainland. Can you blame them?” 

On Jan 31, the UK will begin accepting visa applications for as many as 2.9 million BNO-eligible Hong Kong residents and 2.3 million additional dependents that together make up nearly 70 percent of the territory’s population. 

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Chan said that while it’s clear that some people have begun to leave Hong Kong for the UK, previous waves of outward migration from Hong Kong to other places, such as Canada ahead of the handover in 1997, were offset by new arrivals, as well as people returning to the city once things settled down.

“Right now, we’re still in the middle of the storm - it’s not a good time to assess the situation,” Chan said. “But either way, it won’t come close to the number of people being projected.”