Geopolitics and economic risks seen as key variables shaping bilateral trajectory

China-US relations are facing evolving challenges and adjustments amid rising global uncertainties, with analysts pointing to geopolitical tensions, economic considerations and leadership dynamics as key factors shaping the trajectory of bilateral relations.

At a recent discussion hosted by the New York-based National Committee on United States-China Relations, policymakers and experts examined the current state of engagement between the world's two largest economies and its broader international implications.

Moderated by the nonprofit's President Stephen Orlins, the event featured veteran diplomats, including former US deputy secretary of state Stephen Biegun and former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Beijing, Sarah Beran. They discussed the geopolitical landscape and prospects for future high-level exchanges.

A key focus was the impact of tensions in the Middle East on China-US relations, as Washington signaled increasing pressure on Iran, including warnings tied to developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Beran said the broader instability is not aligned with China's long-term interests.

"This is a conflict that China would not have chosen for the United States to fight," she said, adding that volatility in energy markets and disruptions to global trade flows could have far-reaching consequences.

"The volatility that is emanating from the Middle East, the disruption of energy, of petrochemicals, of trade and investment, is not in Beijing's long-term interest," she said.

China has taken steps in recent years to strengthen its resilience, including diversifying energy sources and building strategic reserves, positioning itself to better withstand external shocks, she added.

Former deputy state secretary Biegun said that both Washington and Beijing may have incentives to see the conflict de-escalate ahead of their leaders' next meeting.

"President (Donald Trump) wants this war over before he gets on the plane to Beijing," he said, referring to expectations in Washington.

The China-US summit is widely seen as an opportunity to stabilize relations, though expectations for major breakthroughs remain limited.

Beran said both sides will likely devote significant efforts to shaping not only the substance of the meeting but also its global perception.

"A summit is a unique moment in time where you can energize both sides to get things done," she said, highlighting the importance of preparatory channels in addressing more complex issues beyond trade.

Persistent challenges

Speakers at the event described China-US relations as marked by enduring structural challenges rather than short-term fluctuations.

Beran said the relationship is in a period of transition, characterized by a "tactical truce" or temporary stalemate, with both sides leveraging economic and strategic "choke points".

The future trajectory of the relationship will depend on multiple factors, she said, including shifts in global power balance, economic performance and the strategic consequences of conflicts such as the situation in Iran.

In addition, Beran said the broader international context, including relations between the US and its allies, will also influence China-US dynamics. She highlighted concerns about divisions among US partners in both Europe and Asia.

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"Fissures in the trans-Atlantic relationship and between partners and allies in Asia and the United States are going to be extremely difficult to mend," she said, adding that such divisions could affect coordination on Washington's China policy.

The discussion also touched on bilateral investment, an area seen as both an opportunity and a challenge in the current climate. Both speakers acknowledged that uncertainty remains a major obstacle.

Beran said Chinese companies may be cautious about investing in the US without assurances of long-term policy stability. "If you're a Chinese company, you want some certainty that the investment will last beyond the midterms or beyond the next presidential transition," she said.

Contact the writers at renali@chinadailyusa.com