The new coronavirus epidemic has rapidly spread to six continents, spawning numerous cases of local infections. Hong Kong is bracing for a more-difficult anti-epidemic battle as it now has to prevent imported cases from abroad. The economic recession in Hong Kong is likely to deteriorate because of reduced economic activities between Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland as well as between the city and overseas markets. If the global spread of the epidemic remains unstopped throughout the year or beyond, the global economy and financial markets are likely to go through a disastrous slump similar to that in 2008. Should such a scenario happen, the impact on Hong Kong’s economy will be difficult to gauge.

Starting in late February, anti-China and anti-communist political forces have been deploying three tactics to intensify political confrontations in Hong Kong: sowing discord between the chief executive and the pro-establishment camp with the hope of weakening them separately; dividing the incumbent administration and spreading rumors that some political figures are attempting to displace the chief executive; and restating the demand for “genuine universal suffrage”, which is the most important item in the “five demands” they have been pursuing. In the meantime, the opposition is strategizing for the seventh Legislative Council election.

It is great news for the SAR government that the 2020-21 budget is well-received by the public. However, a well-received budget was not enough for the government to turn the tables as Hong Kong is on course for a serious economic downturn ahead. From the second quarter this year onward, Hong Kong is bracing for a wave of business closures, rising unemployment and salary cuts. Industries hard-hit by the epidemic, such as tourism, retail, food and catering, hotel, etc., will bear the brunt of these negative trends. Other industries will also be affected to varying degrees. Hong Kong’s institutions are such that the SAR government is unable to alleviate these looming miseries for various industries. Since the public is already feeling the pinch of the economic recession, mainstream opinions largely welcomed the HK$10,000 (US$1,287) cash handout to every permanent adult Hong Kong resident. Nevertheless, the full impact of the economic recession would more than neutralize the HK$10,000 giveaway.

To compensate for its deficiency in political energy under the current political situation, the SAR government needs to proactively seek guidance and support from the central government to strengthen its capacity to govern

The pro-establishment camp, including all patriotic groups, so far has not come up with a political slogan or agenda that is eye-catching and can rally public support. Lawmakers from the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions differentiate themselves from other political parties by undertaking a fundraising campaign for combating the epidemic. Nonetheless, it is far from enough in ensuring a victory in the September Legislative Council election.

A victory in the LegCo election is the key to turning the tide amid the worsening political situation in Hong Kong. To make this happen, it needs to strengthen the organic combination of the central government’s overall jurisdiction over Hong Kong and the SAR’s high degree of autonomy.

As head of the SAR and its administration, the chief executive is chiefly responsible for curbing the political turmoil in Hong Kong. Although the chief executive is not perfect in every aspect and is constrained by many factors when wielding her administrative power, she is expected to do her best in performing her duties as long as she remains in office. At this moment, she needs to quickly resume economic exchanges with the mainland in the hope of improving Hong Kong’s economic condition, and at the same time, she has to resolutely combat the “black revolution”.

The all-out efforts made by the Hong Kong Police Force to combat the “black revolution” are commendable. But we must recognize that the lull in violence shortly before the sixth District Council election in November was designed by the masterminds of the “black revolution”. The small-scale riot on the night of Feb 29 does not mean that violence is tapering off. Even though the police have arrested more than 7,500 people associated with rioting, as well as an alleged financier of the “black revolution”, the perpetrators can still unleash violence with ease under the current judicial system.

It is said that the arrest of Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and two ex-lawmakers on Feb 28 would put the pro-establishment camp at a disadvantage in the forthcoming LegCo election. Such views are predicated on the assumption that the majority of people sympathize with the “black revolution”, which is unlikely.

In retrospect of the political development in Hong Kong last year, the unrelenting “black revolution”, which did not come to an end after the November District Council elections, is the cause of persistent political turmoil in the city. Some people mistakenly believe that the “black revolution” will fade away like the “Occupy Central” movement in 2014. The obsession with past experience exposes the lack of determination to resolve a political struggle. Even if the pro-establishment camp risks another setback in the upcoming LegCo election, as it did in the sixth District Council election, they are in no way to allow the “one country, two systems” red line to be compromised.

To compensate for its deficiency in political energy under the current political situation, the SAR government needs to proactively seek guidance and support from the central government to strengthen its capacity to govern.

The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.