Published: 10:15, April 20, 2026
Oil jumps, stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance
By Agencies

SINGAPORE - Oil prices jumped, the US dollar lifted from lows and stock markets wobbled on ​Monday as rising tension in the Middle East kept shipping in and out of the Gulf to a bare ‌minimum, though traders were holding out hope for a resolution.

Brent crude futures jumped about 6 percent to $96 a barrel in early Asia trade. The dollar, which sold off sharply on Friday when the strait briefly opened, rose slightly.

S&P 500 ​futures fell around 0.7 percent, a modest move considering the index notched a record closing high on Friday. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with Australia's ​S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5 percent and Japan's benchmark Nikkei up 0.7 percent.

Bond markets, which rallied on Friday, retreated.

"The headlines look bad; it looks like there's disagreement ... which has led to a little bit of re-escalation," said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney.

"But I think, ultimately, both sides want to ​be able to do a deal - that's part of the reason why the market's optimistic and not selling off too much."

Focus on Hormuz

In forex news, the euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.1735 and the yen eased around 0.3 percent to 159 per dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell slightly.

Bonds likewise partially retraced Friday moves, with benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields, which had fallen 6.5 basis points on Friday, rising by 3.2 bps ​to 4.276 percent.

Investors sold fixed income assets ​through March in anticipation of ⁠higher oil prices driving inflation - something they have tempered a little in recent weeks.

"Our base case (AKA guess) is still resolution to the war. Trump is still focused on November midterm elections," said Paul ​Chew, head of research at Singapore's Phillip Securities in a note to clients.

Wall Street indexes touched ​record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week.

British inflation data, US retail sales and European purchasing managers' index figures are due later in the week, though much of markets' focus will be ​on Gulf shipping.

"The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one ​data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

"Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus ​is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation."