Asia-Pacific economies are heading for stark divergence in 2026, with chipmaking powerhouses poised to capture the rewards of an artificial intelligence frenzy, while weaker exporters face drag from United States tariffs and domestic political turbulence, according to analysts.

The outlook for nations integral to the global AI supply chain — notably South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia — has brightened from soaring demand for advanced semiconductors, with resilient domestic consumption expected to support growth in China, India, Indonesia, and Japan.

However, the picture darkens for Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Nepal, and others, with analysts anticipating softening external demand for their non-technology exports and, in some cases, simmering political uncertainty.

This underscores a two-speed emerging Asia, where success is increasingly tied to technological integration and supply chain positioning. Winners are capitalizing on what the Tokyo-based investment bank Nomura described as "the AI supercycle". In its latest Asia macro outlook report it says that strong momentum in tech exports will sustain in 2026 on the back of strong AI demand, higher memory prices, and low-tech inventories.

READ MORE: South Korea parliament clears 2026 budget to power AI-led growth

Nomura expects prices of memory chips such as DRAM and NAND to rise by 44 percent and 61 percent respectively, generating "significant terms-of-trade gains" for South Korea.

"In terms of growth outlook, we think there will be leaders and laggards in the region," Sonal Varma, Nomura's chief economist for Asia ex-Japan, said at a briefing this month. She sees tech exports potentially accelerating next year, driven by the continued capital spending by cloud service providers.

Park Chong-hoon, Standard Chartered's head of research in South Korea, told China Daily he expects AI infrastructure investment flows to continue, becoming "more or less like a necessary investment for every economy".

Suthiphand Chirathivat, professor emeritus of economics at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, said members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations offer many advantages to potential investors such as lower labor costs, geographic proximity to China, and improved infrastructure.

ASEAN has become a key hub for tech investments, with some of the world's biggest technology companies venturing in the region for the past few years, he said.

The Asian Development Bank has forecast regional growth for developing Asia-Pacific economies to slow to 4.6 percent in 2026, compared with the projected 5.1 percent growth in 2025. The Manila-based lender attributed this year's economic growth to resilient consumption, while market diversification helped limit the impact of steep US tariffs. However, the full impact of the tariffs will be felt in 2026, with mostly non-tech exports taking the hit.

The GDP of the East Asian region — including two of Asia's biggest economies, China and South Korea — is expected to expand by 4.1 percent. ADB says stronger domestic demand and reduced trade uncertainty after recent talks with the US could support China's GDP growth next year.

'Remarkable resilience'

French investment bank Natixis noted in its 2026 outlook that China's export sector has demonstrated "remarkable resilience", with exports growing by 5.7 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months. Shipments to Australia and ASEAN economies increased 35.8 percent and 8.2 percent respectively.

ADB forecasts that South Asia's GDP will expand by 6 percent, while India, the biggest economy in South Asia, is expected to see a 6.5 percent rise despite the 50 percent duty imposed on its imports by the US.

Amitendu Palit, a senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, said the high US tariffs have a limited impact on India. "The Indian economy draws a lot from its domestic economy," he said.

With India negotiating a bilateral deal on tariffs, Palit said its government also needs to consider whether the industries affected by the US tariffs can be supported through easier access to export finance.

ADB has forecast 4.4 percent growth for ASEAN, yet it says the outlook for individual members varies depending on global and domestic factors.

Sineenat Sermcheep, director of Chulalongkorn University's ASEAN Studies Center, suggested that the bloc address supply chain vulnerabilities and greater regional integration, adding that strategic multialignment, exploring new markets, and enhancing competitiveness will be crucial for the region's sustainable growth.

Yang Wanli in Bangkok and Yang Han in Hong Kong contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at prime@chinadailyapac.com