Published: 10:49, September 10, 2024 | Updated: 17:53, September 10, 2024
Stocks steady but nerves remain raw; Harris-Trump debate up next
By Reuters

LONDON - Global shares steadied on Tuesday, struggling to draw momentum from a rally on Wall Street as concerns about faltering economic growth dampened investor sentiment, which also dented the oil price.

Across the broader equity market, MSCI's All-World index was flat, reflecting modest gains in Europe, where the STOXX 600 was up 0.2 percent and as US stock futures traded either side of unchanged.

Investors are anticipating a series of rapid interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, after last week's US jobs report painted a picture of a labor market that was slowing.

"Markets are now on hard-landing alert essentially and we've seen a return to 'good news is good news'," Investec chief economist Philip Shaw said.

Stocks had traded at record highs just two weeks ago, as expectations built for the Fed to deliver some fresh stimulus to the economy by cutting borrowing costs.

But with the all-important labor market slowing, activity across the manufacturing sector in contraction and inflation subsiding, the mood has shifted.

Futures show traders are banking on US rates dropping by a full percentage point by the end of the year, with a near-30 percent chance of a half-point cut coming as early as next week, according to CME's Fedwatch tool.

Wall Street had staged an impressive rebound in the previous session, after all three major US stock indexes surged more than 1 percent, recovering from last week's selloff.

Later on Tuesday, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump will debate for the first time ahead of the Presidential election on Nov 5, with the two locked in a tight race.

The case for cuts

Investors now turn their attention to Wednesday's US inflation report, which could provide more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve would deliver an outsized 50-basis-point cut when it meets next week.

"(Inflation) numbers have been pretty critical over past few months, but it is arguably less this time around. Markets have it firmly established in their minds that price pressures are easing back. What matters more are the projected trends in US economy and the extent to which activity holds up or slows down," Investec's Shaw said.

Expectations are for headline inflation in the United States to have slowed to an annual rate of 2.6 percent in August, compared with July's 2.9 percent.

"If the inflation number is any different, or significantly different from expectations, then the number of rate cuts (priced in) will be changed," Jun Bei Liu, a portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, said.

"At the moment, I think the market is reasonably aggressive in pricing quite a lot this side of the year, and so that probably opens up for a bit more... volatility that we have seen in the last couple of weeks."

Oil, which has lost nearly 20 percent in the last two months alone, driven by concern about global energy demand, was down another 0.5 percent at $71.50 a barrel.

Copper futures were down 0.1 percent at $9,090 a tonne, while iron ore futures fell 0.7 percent to $91.15 a tonne.

In currencies, the US dollar strengthened 0.24 percent against the yen to trade at 143.53. The euro was flat at $1.1037, while sterling edge up 0.1 percent to $1.3082, after data showed UK wage growth cooled in the three months to July, keeping the case for another Bank of England rate cut.