Hong Kong’s manpower shortage has narrowed from 180,000 to 130,000, due largely to imported talent and the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence, according to the city’s latest manpower numbers released on Tuesday.

While releasing its report — the Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection — the Labour and Welfare Bureau warned that two major groups are likely to be affected by AI — fresh graduates seeking entry-level positions, and middle-aged clerical support workers without post-secondary education.

Key industries in Hong Kong — such as innovation and technology, aviation, construction, city operation, and healthcare services — will still face manpower shortages by 2028, the report stated.

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The report noted that about 20 to 30 percent of positions, primarily clerical, will face restructuring due to the increasing adoption of AI, while demand for emerging AI experts — especially composite talent possessing both AI application skills and sector-specific knowledge — continues to grow.

The research indicates that the adoption of AI in certain roles will boost individual productivity by 20 to 30 percent, while the risk of large-scale layoffs in the short term remains relatively low.

The research revealed that the displacement of entry-level positions has reduced the number of job vacancies suitable for fresh graduates sharply, by approximately 60 percent compared to 2022, and about 70,000 middle-aged clerical support workers aged 45 to 54 without post-secondary education are facing transition pressures.

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Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun Yuk-han said in response to the changes in the labor market driven by AI that the government will continue to collaborate with all parties to formulate targeted measures.

In addition to strengthening retraining mechanisms and providing flexible skill-conversion programs for elderly and middle-aged employees, the bureau will enhance employment support for young graduates and explore incentives for employers and employees to engage in on-the-job retraining.

The bureau noted that the labor force must actively upskill and transform, and that proficiency in human-machine collaboration will become a basic competency, while soft skills that AI cannot replace — such as interpersonal communication, critical thinking, and problem-solving — will remain at the core of competitiveness.

Contact the writer at: atlasshao@chinadailyhk.com