The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from Oct 20 to Thursday. The plenary session reviewed and approved the Recommendations of the CPC Central Committee for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (the recommendations).
Some years ago, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided that China would basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035. The recommendations foresee: “By the year 2035 China’s economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, national defense capabilities, composite national strength, and international influence will all be markedly stronger; that its per capita GDP will be on a par with that of a midlevel developed country; that its people will live better and happier lives; and that socialist modernization will be basically realized.” From the perspective of national development, “the period covered by the 15th Five-Year Plan will be critical in this process as we work to reinforce the foundations and push ahead on all fronts toward basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035”. However, over the next five years, China will face an extremely turbulent, severe, and treacherous international political and economic environment. The intensity and scale of the United States’ and Western’s containment and crackdowns on China will increase. Anti-globalization, unilateralism, protectionism, populism, economic and tariff warfare, bullying, and predatory behavior will create numerous obstacles and disruptions to China’s development. “China remains in a phase of development where strategic opportunities exist alongside risks and challenges, while uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising.”
Since the beginning of reform and opening-up, China’s development trajectory has been remarkably stable, with each Five-Year Plan maintaining a high degree of consistency with its predecessors. This, in turn, has injected stability and certainty into global development. On Oct 4, Zhong Caiwen wrote in the People’s Daily, “China’s modernization is a journey of continuous progress. For a long time, our Party has led the people in advancing modernization, guiding economic and social development through medium- and long-term plans, overlapping strategic and short-term goals, and adhering to a single blueprint.”
Of course, as it will be facing the “high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms” of the future, the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) will inevitably make some adjustments based on the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). Nevertheless, six key principles still must be steadfastly adhered to in economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period: First, we must uphold the Party’s overall leadership, resolutely safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee and its centralized, unified leadership, and ensure that Party leadership permeates all aspects of economic and social development. Second, we must prioritize the people, respect their dominant position, and ensure that the fruits of modernization benefit all people more equitably. Third, we must adhere to high-quality development, guide development with new development concepts, develop new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions, and promote sustained and healthy economic development and comprehensive social progress. Fourth, we must persist in comprehensively deepening reform, expand high-level opening-up, and continuously reinforce development momentum and social vitality. Fifth, we must adhere to the combination of an effective market and an active government, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and better play the role of the government. Sixth, we must coordinate development and security, strengthen bottom-line thinking, effectively prevent and mitigate all risks, and safeguard the new development pattern with a new security framework. These six principles are reflected in the 14th Five-Year Plan and will inevitably be embodied in the 16th Five-Year Plan (2031-35).
In general, the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will enable China to promote Chinese-style modernization by increasing autonomy and openness, placing greater reliance on new quality productive forces and the domestic market, prioritizing the real economy, ensuring economic and technological security, and thereby laying a solid foundation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation
My personal observation is that given the adverse international environment and the need to adjust the country’s development model, the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan places special emphasis on enhancing China’s autonomy, security and sustainability in economic development and scientific and technological innovation, especially reducing its dependence on the US and the West in economy, trade and technology, and ensuring that China’s socialist modernization drive can move forward notwithstanding interference and obstruction from the US and the West.
First and foremost, we must ensure technological independence and avoid being strangled by the US and the West. Over the past decade, China has made rapid progress in new high-quality productive forces across diverse sectors, particularly in chip design, chip manufacturing equipment, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, new energy vehicles, high-speed rail, large aircraft, military technology, robotics, drones, quantum computing, “artificial suns”, green technology, biotechnology, the low-sky economy, and aerospace technology. The recommendations call to “achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology and steer the development of new quality productive forces”. The overall goal is to accelerate decoupling from the US and the West in high technology, preventing them from hampering China’s technological and economic development through high-tech export controls and sanctions.
Second, facing the prospect of prolonged trade wars, tariff wars, and various forms of protectionism, the importance of US and Western markets and capital to China will inevitably decline. In fact, China’s exports to the US account for only about 10 percent of its total exports. China must strengthen economic, trade, technological, and financial cooperation with countries in the Global South to expand and consolidate its international economic space. In the future, it is imperative to intensify efforts to promote economic globalization and reverse the tide of economic deglobalization. The recommendations therefore propose “promote high-standard opening-up and create new horizons for mutually beneficial cooperation. We should continue to expand opening-up at the institutional level, safeguard the multilateral trading system, and promote broader international economic flows. We should advance reform and development through greater openness and seek to share opportunities and achieve common development with the rest of the world. We should take the initiative to open China wider, promote the innovative development of trade, create greater space for two-way investment cooperation, and pursue high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.”
Expanding China’s international economic space is critical to China’s economic security and resilience.
Third, as the role of exports in economic development decreases, China needs to expand domestic demand as the primary driver of economic growth. Domestic demand primarily involves increasing consumption and increasing investment in various infrastructure projects. The recommendations therefore call for building a strong domestic market, resolutely removing “obstacles hindering the development of a unified national market” guided by the strategy of expanding domestic demand. … We should work toward improving living standards while increasing consumer spending and coordinate investments in physical assets and human capital. We should see that new demand drives new supply, that new supply helps create fresh demand, and that positive interactions are fostered between consumption and investment and between supply and demand.
The recommendations also call to firmly “promote common prosperity for all”, and “channels for social mobility (should remain) unimpeded and living standards should be further improved. … We should promote high-quality and full employment, (and) refine the income distribution system”. At the same time, large-scale infrastructure projects will be built to enhance employment and long-term development.
Finally, China prioritizes even more development in the real economy, avoiding the negative consequences of the US’ overemphasis and overreliance on the virtual economy, particularly its long years of deindustrialization. China holds the upper hand in the current China-US economic war precisely because it possesses a comprehensive and integrated modern industrial system. The recommendations, therefore, call for building “a modernized industrial system and (to) reinforce the foundations of the real economy”. It says, “We should keep our focus on the real economy.” To this end, “a modernized industrial system should be developed with advanced manufacturing as the backbone. We should upgrade traditional industries, foster emerging industries and industries of the future, promote high-quality, efficient development in the service sector, and develop a modernized infrastructure system.”
In general, the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will enable China to promote Chinese-style modernization by increasing autonomy and openness, placing greater reliance on new quality productive forces and the domestic market, prioritizing the real economy, ensuring economic and technological security, and thereby laying a solid foundation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
