Big victory in three heartland states puts Modi’s party in pole position ahead of 2024 national elections, observers say

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets party worker during celebrations following Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in the state elections at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, India, Dec 3, 2023. (PHOTO / AP)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, won three out of four key state elections in India on Sunday, a result seen by analysts as a significant boost for the ruling party, and an indication of its continued popularity, ahead of a national election scheduled for 2024.

The BJP was reelected to power in Madhya Pradesh, while wresting Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from India’s main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, or INC, according to data posted on India’s Election Commission website.

Elections in those states took place last month. Polling in India is generally done in phases owing to the large population. Counting of the votes began at 8 am on Sunday.

In the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP put up a dominant performance, with the victory in Madhya Pradesh especially impressive as secured a record fifth term in the state with a two-thirds majority.

The INC also lost in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, two of the few states where it held power over the past five years.

The party, however, found some solace as it won in the southern state Telangana, unseating a government led by a regional party.

Vote counting in a fifth state, Mizoram, which also went to the polls in November began on Monday.

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Supporters of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party celebrate early leads for the party in Rajasthan state elections in Jaipur, India, Dec 3, 2023. (PHOTO / AP)

In a bid to challenge Modi in the 2024 general election, 28 political parties have united to form the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA. The grouping is led by the  Indian National Congress

Analysts see the BJP’s victory in three key states as a solid boost for the party and a measure of its sustained popularity ahead of India’s 2024 national election.

As the results came in, celebrations broke out at BJP offices across the country on Sunday. Outside the party headquarters in New Delhi, a large crowd started to assemble since early morning and remained there throughout the day and the mood was jubilant. Young men broke into cheers and chants as big television screens showed the BJP leading in three important states.

“We always said we will win the heartland states,” BJP President Jagat Prakash Nadda told the media. “The results are the outcome of our fine political strategy and work on the ground.”

As the BJP won in three politically important states, expectations are rising that Modi will secure a third term as prime minister when India holds its general election next year.

“I am so happy that the BJP is winning,” said Anil Mishra, a 21-year-old party worker wearing a crisp floral jacket and a scarf of saffron, the party’s color, wrapped around his knuckles at the party headquarters in New Delhi.

“They will give a push to Hindutva,” he remarked, referring to the party’s plan of reshaping India along explicitly Hindu lines.

Some experts had predicted that the INC, which ruled most of the Indian states since the country gained independence from Britain in 1947, would do better this time in local elections.

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In a bid to challenge Modi in the 2024 general election, 28 political parties have united to form the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA. The grouping is led by the INC.

Modi remains widely popular after a decade in power, and surveys suggest he will win again next year.

The opposition alliance, INDIA, did not feature in the state elections, which were mainly a direct contest between BJP and Congress.

The four states are home to more than 160 million voters and account for 82 seats in the 543-member Indian parliament.

Overriding anti-incumbency, the victory by Modi’s BJP in three major states is hugely significant as it comes months ahead of the general election, experts said.

India is expected to hold its general election sometime before the end of May next year.

Paramilitary soldiers stand guard outside a votes counting center as officials count votes of the Telangana state elections in Hyderabad, India, Dec 3, 2023. (PHOTO / AP)

Multiple factors, including continued popularity of Modi, welfare schemes initiated by the federal government, hard work of the grassroots BJP leaders, and leadership crisis and lack of confidence among the opposition Congress supporters, are behind the BJP’s resounding victory in three major Hindi heartland states, said Sangit Kumar Ragi, head of the Department of Political Science at the University of Delhi.

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The victory is seen as a gauge of Prime Minister Modi’s popularity before the general election in 2024, Ragi noted.

In the run-up to the vote, Modi flew across the states and aggressively campaigned to garner support for his party’s candidates.

Rahul Gandhi, a top INC leader, also crisscrossed the states, addressed multiple rallies and promised several welfare schemes, including cash payouts and farm loan waivers, to woo voters.

India is heading toward a general election at a time when it is facing several challenges, including increased unemployment, high inflation and elevated poverty levels.

Some experts say that state polls do not always influence the outcome of the general elections, or accurately indicate national voter mood.

BJP suffered a setback earlier this year when it lost the big southern state of Karnataka to Congress.

The writer is a freelance journalist for China Daily.