The “Clash of Civilizations” thesis was first proposed by American political scientist Samuel Huntington in a 1992 lecture at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC. In response to his former student Francis Fukuyama’s much-acclaimed book of the same year, The End of History and the Last Man, which argued that the whole world was converging on America’s model of democracy, Huntington expanded his thesis in a 1996 book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.
Huntington contends that trends of global conflict after the end of the Cold War are increasingly appearing at civilizational divisions. He postulates that the widespread Western belief in the universality of the West’s values and political systems is naive. Continued insistence on democratization and such “universal” norms will only further antagonize other civilizations.
Huntington’s thesis seems prescient in the current dynamics of great power conflicts across the globe, whether in the Middle East or in the US-China rivalry.
Despite repeated assurances that the United States doesn’t seek to decouple from China or derail its development, very much the opposite remains the case, regardless of the “de-risking” rebranding.
The US global stranglehold over China’s semiconductors is being further tightened, even at the cost of causing huge disruptions to the world’s supply and value chains, including American corporate interests.
There is no letup in demonizing China at every turn, including issues over the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, capitalizing on the West’s global media dominance, with provocative unilateral sanctions against the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong SAR officials, including judges.
Apart from the continual refusal to accept a multipolar world, deep-seated American exceptionalism with “city upon a hill” democracy prevails across partisan divides.
With declining American power to call all the shots in a fractious world, this has morphed into a paranoid distrust, if not fear, of a rising, resilient China, or simply-put, an existential “China threat”.
There are six dimensions to this.
First, as China remains a communist state, the US and its Western allies, with their Western democratic traditions, remain unable to accept the legitimacy of Beijing’s model of governance, regardless of the reality that under the Communist Party of China’s tutelage, the lives of the Chinese people, a fifth of humanity, have been dramatically transformed for the better. Recent independent research by the Harvard Kennedy School, the New York-based Edelman Trust Barometer, and the Paris-based IPSOS research center all accord top rankings to China in terms of people’s satisfaction and tarust of their government, multiple ranks above many democratic nations, including the US.
Neither the “clash of civilizations” nor the so-called “Thucydides trap” of great power rivalry is inevitable. The protracted war in Ukraine and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza as well as flashpoints in the South China Sea demand more stable and less-confrontational US-China relations
Second, the rhetoric that China wants to supplant the US in ruling the world is flawed. Witness America’s unrivaled scientific lead, technological breakthroughs, entrepreneurial excellence, financial depth, global military reach, network of friends and allies, and global cultural soft power. China’s governance model takes account of its unique history, geography, development trajectory, ethnic and regional diversity, and relatively scarce water resources. China is not exporting its model, nor can it be replicated. All China wants is world peace, development, win-win cooperation, mutual respect, coexistence with other countries, and conflict resolution through dialogue rather than unilateral coercion.
Third, it’s impracticable to de-couple from China in any meaningful way. As the world’s largest and most extensive manufacturer, China is deeply entrenched in the global supply and value chain, thanks to its massive and comprehensive economy of scale. Even if not marked “Made in China”, many of the world’s products have China’s materials, components, and logistics embedded. China is now the bigger trading partner for 128 of 190 countries, according to a Lowy Institute report. Seven of the world’s top 10 busiest container ports are in China.
Fourth, nor is it realistic, let alone justifiable, to attempt to derail China’s trajectory through semiconductors. Huawei’s recent launch of its state-of-the-art Mate 60 Pro smartphone is tale-telling. According to a South China Morning Post report of Sept 25, China is reported to be developing a giant extreme-ultraviolet lithographic factory driven by particle accelerator for high-end semiconductor chips of 7-nanometer nodes and below. Excluded from the US-led International Space Station from the very start, China’s success in building its own space station and operating it smoothly also speaks volumes about its self-reliant high-tech capabilities.
An Australian Strategic Policy Institute tracker in March found that China beat the US in 37 of 44 key cutting-edge technologies, with a substantial lead in all categories, including artificial intelligence, quantum communications and biotechnology. After all, China has a wealth of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) doctorates and is set to outnumber those in the US by 3-to-1 by 2025, excluding foreign students.
Fifth, according to the New York-based Conference Board, by 2035, the share of global GDP by emerging economies will have risen to 61 percent. This underpins the growing global influence of the Global South, where China is closely linked as the world’s largest trader and manufacturer and by way of its extensive Belt and Road Initiative. One hundred fifty nations attended the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing on Oct 18, pledging high-quality and integrity-based cooperation in energy, taxation, finance, green development, disaster risk reduction, anti-corruption, think tanks, media, culture and other fields. Fed up with decades of endless wars, poverty and oppression, the Global South is embracing a growing momentum for an “open, inclusive and interconnected world for common development”.
Sixth, as distinct from Western zero-sum “win-or-lose” mentality, Chinese philosophy and civilization extol the concept of harmony despite differences: he er butong. There is no valid reason why civilizations need to clash, rivalry and competition notwithstanding, particularly in a world of hypersonic weapons of mass destruction.
The Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions are poised to dramatically change people’s way of life, the conduct of businesses, and international relations in a borderless world increasingly interlinked and mutually dependent in such areas as climate change, public health and terrorism, not to mention international trade, finance, science and technological research.
Neither the “clash of civilizations” nor the so-called “Thucydides trap” of great power rivalry is inevitable. The protracted war in Ukraine and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza as well as flashpoints in the South China Sea demand more stable and less-confrontational US-China relations. With a flurry of high-level visits and exchanges on both sides in recent weeks, there is hope of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
The author is an international independent China strategist, and was previously the director-general of social welfare and Hong Kong’s official chief representative for the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, Russia, Norway, and Switzerland.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
