(MA XUEJING / CHINA DAILY)
The first two decades of the 21st century have witnessed tectonic transformations. Modern technology has resulted in an exponential growth in mutual awareness and empowerment of increasingly interdependent global citizens.
The Westphalian state system of the last 372 years is having to increasingly reckon with the unfolding specter of non-state actors such as transnational organizations (both governmental and non-governmental), multinational corporations and terrorist networks.
Moving beyond historical preoccupations with enhancing their armed forces’ destructive capabilities, states must now ensure the productivity and prosperity that constitute critical components of national power. National security is inclusive of development. Power is being replaced by influence.
The conventional understanding of power — so-called hard power — is being supplemented by soft power, smart power and sharp power; all undergirded by human resources, technologies and financial leverage.
This has changed the global hierarchy, producing new clusters of power in international relations. For example, while the economic rise of then West Germany and Japan in the 1970s — in the midst of the Cold War — did not make them great powers, the economic rise of China since the 1990s — coinciding with the collapse of the Soviet Union — has given Beijing enormous system-shaping leverages.
This is how emerging economies have come to be celebrated as a new category of influencers in international decision-making.
Early to appreciate these structural changes, Jim O’Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, published two papers: One in November 2001 titled “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs” and another in 2003 titled “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050”.
These papers outlined how the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China promised continued high growth rates, better per-dollar returns for investors and projected their expanding share in global governance.
For the first 10 years of the 21st century, BRIC growth trajectories held true to these projections. This resulted in their coming together after their 2009 Yekaterinburg summit. As this coincided with the onset of global economic slowdown in 2008 and inclusion of South Africa in 2010, BRICS made their economic rise even more noticeable.
However, this also witnessed their individual growth trajectories drifting away from prophesied patterns. China stood apart by consistently increasing its lead, while the others, especially Russia and Brazil, have been held back.
COVID-19 has further expanded China’s lead over the remaining BRICS members. China’s GDP crossed 100 trillion yuan ($15.64 trillion) in 2020 and is now bigger than that of Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France combined. It is two-and-half times bigger than that of the rest of BRICS.
But BRICS have so far held together; and their combined GDP of $20.34 trillion is edging past US GDP of $21.43 trillion. But can BRICS hold together any longer, or is it losing shine to other forums such as the Quadrilateral Security Framework of the United States, Japan, Australia and India?
The onus for keeping BRICS alive and together lies primarily with China and India — the two largest BRICS economies. This makes strong China-India relations a prerequisite for the future of BRICS.
What holds promise is that BRICS’ success carries direct positive spinoffs for their relationship.
China and India remain economically most engaged in an otherwise disjoined BRICS. Brazil and South Africa are geographically distant, with very different priorities while China, India and Russia have their own divergences and differences.
For this they developed a unique strategy for each BRICS summit, preceding each with over 50 pentagonal preparatory meetings among their academics, think tanks, journalists, business and sports persons, advisors, officials and senior ministers to build a strong foundation.
With the pandemic hopefully receding into the background, most economies are today expecting to enter a new phase of V- or U-shaped economic recovery. This period has seen China and India set new records in vaccinating their people as well as producing and supplying vaccines, medicines, materials and equipment to fight the virus and provide aid around the world.
It is also marked by Chinese active pharmaceutical ingredients supporting India as the Pharmacy of the World. This stability in China-India relations promises BRICS coming together to devise innovative strategies to stay on course.
The author is a professor and chairman at the Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
