New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (center) speaks to the students while campaigning at Victoria University in Wellington on Oct 13, 2020, ahead of the country's general election on Oct 17. (MARTY MELVILLE / AFP)

A win by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand’s Oct 17 election will have little impact on the relationship with China, which remains in good shape, despite some challenging moments during the year, analysts say.

Opinion polls put the prime minister’s Labour Party well ahead of the National Party led by Judith Collins.

Stephen Jacobi, a long-time China analyst and executive director of the New Zealand International Business Forum, said that no matter who wins, he does not expect to see a major shift in New Zealand-China relations

Stephen Jacobi, a long-time China analyst and executive director of the New Zealand International Business Forum, said that no matter who wins, he does not expect to see a major shift in New Zealand-China relations.

“Foreign policy has hardly figured at all in the election,” he told China Daily.  

“Both Labour and National can be expected to continue to manage the relationship with care and diplomacy, especially given the importance of trade in the economic recovery post-COVID.

“Having said that, both parties can be expected to pay attention to issues like human rights and religious freedoms, where New Zealand and China sometimes differ.”

He added that geopolitical tensions are likely to overshadow the relationship and both countries will need to commit themselves to talking directly about things that matter to both.

“When travel resumes, we look forward to high-level visits in both directions.

“New Zealand and China will want to work together in international institutions including APEC which New Zealand chairs in 2021, as well as in the Belt and Road Initiative,” he added.

The executive director of the New Zealand-China Council, Rachel Maidment, agreed, saying: “While we have different perspectives on some issues, these continue to be managed well.

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“New Zealand’s ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’, continues to deliver benefits for both nations and trade has tracked well, with recent statistics showing exports from New Zealand to China rising by seven percent so far this year,” she told China Daily.

Given countries’ particular histories, political and legal systems, and world views, she said it is natural for countries to take different perspectives on some issues.

“As a liberal democracy, the New Zealand government takes a stance where it thinks the public has a direct interest in the outcome.” 

She doubted there will be any change in New Zealand policy towards China after the election, saying: “New Zealand has maintained an independent foreign policy for over 30 years. Both major parties have a long-standing bipartisan approach to the bilateral relationship and this is unlikely to change after the election.”

Catherine Beard, executive director for ExportNZ, said: “I don’t think it would matter too much who wins as to how the China-NZ relationship will be in the future because, despite any political posturing, there is not a lot of differences between the National or Labour party when it comes to trade policy and international relationships.”

She said both major parties know that China is a very important trade partner to New Zealand and value the relationship highly.

“Both major parties (Labour and National) would also reserve the right to have a New Zealand perspective on world issues, so there may be times where they would respectfully agree to disagree, as would be the case with any country.”

Beard said she does not think any of the areas of agreement or disagreement would be a surprise to China and that New Zealand’s policy on international relations is reasonably transparent and predictable.

Bloomberg went on to say that there is a chance Labour could win an outright majority, which no party in New Zealand has done since the 1990s

“I think it is probably true to say that either political party would take the view that a small country needs to try to be friends to everyone where that is possible and to promote and support a fair rules-based system such as the WTO, so that any country can get justice if they need it, no matter what their size.

“I also think as the world tries to recover from the economic and health impacts of COVID-19 that good trade and political relationships will be more important than ever.”

A recent report by Bloomberg said that Ardern’s “greatest strength as a politician is her authenticity and ability to relate to others”.

“It has served her well during her first term, when the nation has faced some of its darkest moments – a terrorist attack by a white supremacist that left 51 dead, a volcanic eruption that killed 21, and most recently the COVID-19 pandemic … polls predict a resounding victory for Ardern’s left-leaning Labour Party, despite a slumping economy and Ardern’s failure to deliver on key pledges such as fixing a housing crisis and lifting children out of poverty.”

Bloomberg went on to say that there is a chance Labour could win an outright majority, which no party in New Zealand has done since the 1990s.

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While the opposition National Party is struggling, it is trying to win over voters with tax cuts and attacking Ardern for not delivering on her pledges. With just days to go before voters go to the polls, none of this has had any impact on Ardern’s popularity.

Ardern, 40, came to power just three years ago, having inherited the Labour leadership just two months before the 2017 election. Following an unexpected win, the young party leader has since proven herself to be a politician who can connect with the grass roots.

Her talent for connecting with others is grounded in her humility, said James Shaw, co-leader of the Green Party, which supports her administration.

“She didn’t want the job – Andrew Little had to twist her arm,” Shaw said in an Oct 8 interview.

“If you look at some of these other world leaders, it’s all about them. For her, it’s all about everybody else.”