Fueled by accelerating exports growth and solid domestic demand, Hong Kong's economy grew at 5.2 percent in the third quarter of this year compared to a year earlier, making the expansion in the first nine months of this year the quickest in five years.

It is also a big jump from 4.2 percent growth logged in the previous quarter, marking a 1.9 percent expansion on a quarter-to-quarter basis, advance estimates on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter showed on Tuesday.

The data from the Census and Statistics Department came hours after Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said that Hong Kong’s economic momentum continued in the third quarter, with a particularly strong investment sector, which reflected the business community’s optimistic perspective on the city's growth.

Recent major events have drawn a large number of visitors to the city, boosting local retail and catering industries, Chan told the media. He estimated that the total number of visitors will exceed 50 million this year.

According to the advance estimates, private consumption expenditure, analyzed by major GDP component, increased by 2.8 percent in real terms in the third quarter of this year over a year earlier, compared with a rise of 2.9 percent in the second quarter.

Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.7 percent in real terms in the third quarter of this year over a year earlier, after remaining virtually unchanged in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, gross domestic fixed capital formation increased by 7.3 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, a jump from 3.7 percent increase in the second quarter.

The data shows that exports of goods – a key contributor to the growth – measured in national accounts terms grew further by 30.4 percent in the third quarter over a year earlier, after logging a 28.9 percent rise in the previous quarter.

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Over the same period, imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 29.9 percent, compared with an increase of 29.3 percent in the second quarter.

Exports of services in the third quarter rose by 4.3 percent year-on-year against a 3.2 percent rise in the second quarter, while imports of services saw a 5.6 percent rise after a 3.1 percent increase in the second quarter.

For the first three quarters of 2026 combined, real GDP grew by 5.1 percent over the same period last year, the fastest growth for the corresponding period in five years, the statistics show.

Looking ahead, a government spokesman said the city’s economic outlook remains positive, with incoming data pointing to sustained growth momentum. Robust global artificial intelligence investment should continue to underpin Hong Kong's merchandise exports, the spokesman said, adding that exports of services should also benefit from sustained growth in inbound tourism, vibrant cross-boundary traffic and active financial market activities.

Meanwhile, steady economic expansion, rising employment earnings and a positive business outlook domestically are expected to lend support to consumption and investment.

The government, however, cautioned that persistent uncertainties in the external environment, particularly developments surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tighter monetary policies by many major central banks, warrant close monitoring.

The finance chief said government advisers are currently gathering data and analyzing external conditions, as Hong Kong is a "fully open economy" whose performance may be affected by changes in geopolitics, capital flows, and international economic and trade policies.

He pledged that the special administrative region government will continue to work to encourage overseas AI businesses to list in or bring their operations to Hong Kong, thereby helping create more job opportunities and drive the development of the city's innovation and technology sector.

Kenny Shui Chi-wai, vice-president of Our Hong Kong Foundation and executive director of the Public Policy Institute, said the robust GDP growth over the past three quarters has set a solid foundation for the entire year's performance.

Buoyed by thriving AI-related trade, as well as the city's robust financial activities and tourism sector, Shui said he expects GDP growth in the fourth quarter to remain at 4 to 5 percent year-on-year, with a full-year growth of around 5 percent.

However, he cautioned that attention must be paid to the impact of interest rates on corporate investment and household spending. "For Q4's growth, apart from monitoring whether exports can maintain their strong momentum, it will also be crucial to see whether consumption and employment can improve at the same time," he said.