Published: 11:36, October 20, 2026
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Middle powers urged to defend multilateral trade
By Prime Sarmiento in Bangkok

As this year's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank concluded in Bangkok on Sunday, a recurring theme emerged: middle powers will need to work together to defend the multilateral trading system and protect their growth prospects amid geopolitical frictions, rising protectionism and climate change.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted the "spirit of cooperation" at the seven-day event. "In a world of repetitive shocks and geopolitical fragmentation, there is still desire for multilateral dialogue and cooperation," she said on Saturday.

Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the IMF's Asia Pacific Department, said the ideal one is a multilateral trading system in which all countries adhere to the same rules, but trade and geopolitical tensions are putting the system under strain.

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"The thinking has always been that the big powers should play a leading role, but I think the global trading system and global solutions also depend on middle powers," Helbling told China Daily.

By working together, he said, they can help foster solutions and bring other countries to the table.

Many of these middle powers are in developing Asia, which the IMF expects to grow 5.1 percent this year, outpacing its 3.1 percent global forecast. Although largely net energy importers hit by the Middle East crisis, emerging Asian economies have been cushioned by the AI boom, as many are part of its supply chain.

Georgieva said the meetings reflected both optimism and concern. "Optimism from the resilience of the global economy, the promise of AI, the dynamism of Asia. But AI is also recognized to be a source of worry. And so are inflation, high levels of debt, worse climate risks," she said.

V. Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser to the Indian government, called Asia "ambitious" and a "great converter" of best practices from elsewhere, saying its ability to adapt is why he remains hopeful.

"But what gives me also sleepless nights is that Asia is going to be caught in the geopolitical contestation for materials and resources which Asia broadly lacks," he said.

Petr Grishin, vice-chairman of the management board at Eurasian Development Bank in Kazakhstan, said it is important for middle powers to diversify trade and investment partners to avoid dependence on any single major power.

He cited Central Asia, where investment demand is strong in electricity generation, transmission and distribution. Electricity demand in the region is expected to rise 30 percent over the next five years, he said.

Intra-regional trade also has room to grow, accounting for more than 20 percent of total trade among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations but just 5 percent in Central Asia. Expanding such trade is an opportunity "irrespective of global politics", Grishin said.

Eli Remolona Jr, governor of the Philippine central bank, said ASEAN+3 — the bloc's 11 members plus China, Japan and South Korea — is a "bright spot in the global economy".

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However, growth remains uneven, underscoring the need for more intra-regional trade to spread its benefits, he said.

Yasuto Watanabe, director of the Singapore-based ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, said ASEAN is one of the most open regional economies, with the trade-to-GDP ratio at 110 percent, well above the global average of 44 percent.

Yet the region is not immune to external shocks, making regional cooperation vital, he said.

"The objective is not to avoid every shock. It is to ensure that the economy can withstand the shock. That's the benefit of regional cooperation," he said.

 

Amber Li in Bangkok contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at prime@chinadailyapac.com