Strong global demand for artificial intelligence-related and other high-tech electronics is expected to continue supporting Hong Kong’s trade performance, economists and trade-sector representatives said, even as geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for higher shipping costs cloud the outlook.

Their comments followed official figures showing that Hong Kong’s exports and imports rose sharply in August, extending a monthslong trade recovery.

Gary Wan, principal economist and strategist at Dah Sing Financial Group, said Hong Kong’s export growth in August beat both market forecasts and the group’s own estimate.

He said the city’s exports are projected to grow by about 40 percent for the full year, underpinned by a strong electronics trade. However, he cautioned that geopolitical uncertainty and potentially elevated energy prices could weigh on external demand and push up ocean shipping costs.

According to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government, merchandise exports surged further in August amid robust demand for AI-related electronic products, marking the 19th straight month of double-digit growth.

Looking ahead, such demand is expected to continue supporting Hong Kong’s trade performance in the near term, a government spokesperson said. “Nonetheless, given the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued protectionist trade measures among major advanced economies, the external environment remains uncertain and warrants close monitoring.”

Tommy Chung Ki-fung, a Hong Kong lawmaker representing the import-and-export sector, said deeper regional supply-chain cooperation and Hong Kong’s growing links with emerging markets are providing longer-term support for the city’s trade.

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He cited the recent use of the Single E-lock Scheme by an air cargo service provider to move goods from Vietnam to the Hong Kong SAR via the Chinese mainland. Under the arrangement, an electronic lock is applied to cargo at the point of origin, allowing customs authorities to monitor its status across customs zones and avoid repeated inspections.

Chung said as global supply chains are being reshaped and manufacturing capacity in Southeast Asia continues to rise, this model helps connect regional manufacturing centers with overseas end-markets more efficiently.

It could also channel more imports and exports through Hong Kong and reinforce the city’s role as a hub for supply-chain coordination and international logistics, he said.

Figures released by the Census and Statistics Department on Thursday showed that the value of total goods exports jumped 53 percent from a year earlier to HK$667.9 billion ($85.15 billion) in August, accelerating from July’s rise. Imports rose 60 percent to HK$739.1 billion.

Analysts said August’s year-on-year export increase was the second-fastest in 42 years. It also marked the 30th consecutive month of export growth since March 2024.

By destination, exports to Asia as a whole rose nearly 60 percent year-on-year. Shipments to other major markets also climbed sharply, with the United States up 64.2 percent.

Exports of “electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof” rose 62.6 percent year-on-year, while shipments of “office machines and automatic data processing machines” more than doubled.

Despite the strong figures, Chung said he remained “cautiously optimistic” about the outlook because of persistent external uncertainty.

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He called on the HKSAR government to strengthen support for trade financing and export credit insurance to help businesses manage settlement and logistics risks. Importers and exporters, he added, should deepen supply-chain links with emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia while consolidating their presence in Europe, the US and East Asia.

Contact the writer at irisli@chinadailyhk.com