Published: 11:51, December 18, 2025
Canada population drops 0.2% in third quarter in first decline since pandemic
By Bloomberg
A street musician performs as people walk to see cherry blossoms at High Park in Toronto, Canada, May 4, 2025. (PHOTO / AP)

Canada’s population fell by 0.2 percent in the third quarter to stand at 41.6 million, marking the only quarterly decline on record outside the COVID-19 era and a dramatic shift from explosive post-pandemic immigration growth.

The decrease was led by a record drop in non-permanent residents, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday. Prime Minister Mark Carney has continued a policy introduced by his predecessor to shrink the number of foreign students, temporary workers and asylum-seekers in the country after their numbers ballooned in 2023 and 2024.

In the third quarter, the population grew just 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the lowest on record in data going back to 1947. That contrasts with a 3.2 percent annual rate in 2023, on par with some developing countries with high birth rates.

READ MORE: Canada clocks fastest population growth in 66 years in 2023

Following the pandemic, Canadian colleges recruited massive numbers of foreign students, largely from India, pushing the country to a point where one in 40 people was an international study permit-holder. The rapid growth strained housing and services, causing public support for immigration to fall to multi-decade lows.

Then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity took a deep hit on the immigration backlash, announced a plan in late 2024 to shrink Canada’s population by 0.2 percent annually in 2025 and 2026, before rebounding to modest growth in 2027. He promised to reduce the share of temporary residents to 5 percent of Canada’s population.

Carney, in his immigration plan released last month, further slashed the levels of temporary residents allowed in the country for the next three years and made deeper cuts to study permits. At the same time, however, he promised C$1.7 billion ($1.2 billion) to recruit international researchers and a new pathway to lure H-1B visa holders.

As of the third quarter, temporary residents made up 6.8 percent of Canada’s population, down from a peak of 7.6 percent.

The country saw a decline of 176,000 non-permanent residents in the third quarter, the largest drop on record in data going back to 1971. The plunge surpassed decreases in the first and second quarters of this year.

The Bank of Canada has said it expects weak population growth, as well as elevated unemployment due to the trade conflict with the US, to drive a slowdown in consumer spending in 2026 and 2027. It’s also said the immigration pullback will slow potential growth in coming years, limiting the pace at which the economy can expand without incurring inflation.

“A major population adjustment is well underway, and it remains one of the biggest economic stories in Canada,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a report to investors.

“Among the impacts we’re tracking are: a significant weakening of the rental market, especially with the pipeline chock-full of supply; less pressure on services inflation; easing slack in the youth job market; and a likely pickup in productivity and growth in real gross domestic product per capita.”

READ MORE: Global migration spurs historic rise in Canadian population

Ontario and British Columbia saw the largest overall population decreases, followed by Manitoba and the Northwest Territories. Every province and territory except Alberta and Nunavut saw population declines, but Alberta’s 0.2 percent quarterly growth was its lowest since the pandemic.

Every province and territory except Nunavut had fewer non-permanent residents in the third quarter. The largest decrease was seen in Ontario, also the province that had recruited the most international students during the post-pandemic boom. Statistics Canada said the decline was led by study permit holders.

While temporary migration was the main reason for the drop in Canada’s population, this was partly offset by permanent immigration, the agency said. Canada welcomed nearly 103,000 permanent residents, similar to the quarterly increases seen since the fourth quarter of 2024.