Hong Kong stocks opened the week with a modest upswing, buoyed by renewed optimism over Federal Reserve rate cuts. Experts remain confident that Chinese assets will maintain their upward momentum, despite uncertainties over the United States economy and the Chinese mainland’s exports prospects.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index climbed 0.85 percent, or 215.93 points to close at 25,633.91 points on Monday. The Hang Seng TECH Index, which represents the 30 largest technology companies listed in the special administrative region, advanced 1.17 percent to 5,753.75 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index edged up 0.71 percent to 9,121.66 points.

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“As expectations for an imminent cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve are heating up, and investors are digesting the rumor that Chinese mainland authorities are mulling over curbs on stocks speculation, Hong Kong stocks are on track to trend steadily upward,” said Kwok Ka-yiu, business development director of Hong Kong-based Harbour Family Office.

After US employment data on Friday indicated a cooling labor market, investors now see the need for aggressive monetary loosening by the US central bank. Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered have sounded the alarm that the real labor market could be weaker than reported and this has raised new fears about the health of the world’s largest economy.

Investors were banking on a 90-percent chance of a rate cut at the Fed policy meeting on Sept 17 following the release of the employment data -— up from 87 percent the week before — according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on Fed funds futures trading data.

Adding to the uncertainties are the trade tariffs. China’s exports continued to rise in August, though at a slower pace of 4.4 percent in US dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday. This marked their lowest growth since February.

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Banny Lam Chiu-kei, senior lecturer of the Lee Shau Kee School of Business and Administration at the Hong Kong Metropolitan University, attributed the strong export performance over the past two months to frontloaded shipments during the trade truce between the world’s two largest economies.

“As tariff negotiations showed progress and market concerns eased, businesses faced less urgency to rush exports, leading to a moderation in August’s export figures,” Lam said.

He said he expects to see a gradual increase in bilateral goods purchases between China and the US from ongoing trade talks. “Coupled with global monetary easing and the Chinese mainland’s growing ties with trading partners from ASEAN and the Middle East, these are believed to support China’s exports in the second half of 2025,” said Lam, projecting high single-digit trade growth for the full year.

While short-term fluctuations cannot be ruled out, the medium-term upward trend of Chinese assets will persist, China International Capital Corp wrote in its latest report.

“The underlying fundamentals that support the current rally remain intact,” said CICC. The research house underscores the progress with the early-stage restructuring of the global monetary order, the growing advantages of innovation and the supply chain in the world’s second-largest economy, and discounted valuations in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as key drivers for continued asset re-rating.

Contact the writer at sophialuo@chinadailyhk.com