BEIJING - With China's Duanwu Festival film slate thin on major releases, the arrival of Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning could deliver a much-needed boost to a domestic box office that has cooled off after its Spring Festival peak.

The Tom Cruise-led action spectacle is set to hit Chinese mainland theaters on May 30, just ahead of the Duanwu holiday -- also known as the Dragon Boat Festival -- which runs from May 31 to June 2 this year and overlaps with Children's Day on June 1. As the eighth installment in the long-running franchise, The Final Reckoning lands as an early entry into China's crucial summer movie season, a June-to-August window typically defined by crowd-pleasing hits and heavy turnout.

Despite Hollywood's diminishing gravitational pull at China's box office, the new Mission: Impossible movie is showing signs of standout potential. The franchise has long been one of Cruise's most bankable assets, earning $4.2 billion globally, including about $487 million or 11.58 percent from China, according to film data platform Box Office Mojo. Its last installment, The Dead Reckoning, earned over $48.75 million in China in 2023, accounting for 8.5 percent of the film's global take.

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In The Final Reckoning, Cruise reprises his role as Ethan Hunt, a covert operative leading a team of specialists as they confront rogue artificial intelligence that poses an existential threat to global security -- a plotline that reflects cinema's growing preoccupation with AI as both a technological marvel and a potential menace. On film data platform Beacon, the title currently leads all Duanwu holiday titles in advance interest, topping 100,000 "want to see" clicks.

"The film's IP is well-established in China. Its solid online heat and strong brand recognition could help lift the entire holiday box office," Lai Li, an analyst at box office tracker Maoyan, noted in an interview with Xinhua, adding that the dual calendar advantage of Duanwu and Children's Day should serve as a strong warm-up for summer season attendance.

Supporting that view, Beacon analyst Chen Jin observed that Cruise's commitment to real stunts, reportedly including extreme cold chases and deep-sea dives, coupled with his screen charisma, continues to differentiate the franchise. Among 14 titles set for release during the Duanwu window, The Final Reckoning leads in buzz.

Still, the film faces competition from local titles such as animated fantasy Endless Journey of Love and crime thriller Behind the Shadows, starring Louis Koo. Japan's Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Art World Tales, set to debut on May 31, is attracting strong family interest, riding on its steady fan base in China.

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China's 2025 box office has shown signs of resilience, grossing 27 billion yuan year-to-date, up 26 percent year-on-year thanks largely to animated blockbuster Ne Zha 2. But momentum has waned sharply since March, with both the Qingming and May Day holidays underperforming due to a lack of heavyweight domestic releases. Monthly box office revenues since March have also posted notable declines year-on-year.

"The slowdown after Chinese New Year underscores the importance of major films in sustaining market heat," said Lai. "But the upcoming summer season looks promising in terms of diversity and scale."

Chinese studios are preparing a rich menu of genre fare, with comedies, fantasies, and animation making up the bulk of confirmed releases. Local highlights include comedies Love List (June 14), Life Party (June 28), and The Lychee Road (July 25) -- the latter being based on a popular historical novel by Ma Boyong. Notably, animated drama Nobody, set for release on Aug 2, adapts an episode from the acclaimed "ao-Chinese Folktales animation series.

On the international front, Universal Pictures' live-action How to Train Your Dragon is slated for release on June 13, while Jackie Chan will return in Sony's Karate Kid: Legends on June 7.

With a diverse slate already locked in and several high-profile domestic and international titles still expected to join this year's lineup at later dates, China's upcoming release schedule holds strong potential at the box office, according to analysts. Whether that rebound will materialize remains to be seen, following last year's 44 percent year-on-year drop in box office revenue during the summer stretch that began June 1.

"The market still needs a catalytic hit to anchor the season," Chen told Xinhua. "We're hoping the Duanwu and Children's Day pairing can deliver one."

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Whether The Final Reckoning can rise to that challenge depends not just on nostalgia or star power, but also on evolving audience tastes. Chinese moviegoers have increasingly turned to local stories with cultural depth, a trend that has eroded Hollywood's onetime supremacy. In 2024, American films accounted for just 14 percent of China's box office, down from 36 percent in 2018 and 30 percent in 2019, according to Maoyan data obtained by Xinhua.

But in a market in flux and hungry for standout content -- be it local or imported, rich in storytelling or packed with adrenaline -- can Tom Cruise make it mission possible and ignite China's summer movie season?