It’s finally September, but the record-breaking summer heat continues to linger. It is becoming increasingly evident that 2024 will likely be marked as the hottest year on record. Like many other regions across the globe, Hong Kong has been grappling with unprecedented temperatures.
In fact, last year clinched the title of being the warmest year globally, and for the past 14 months since June 2023, each consecutive month has been the hottest on record for that month. The reality of global warming, which was confirmed in the early 1990s, is now widely accepted as a scientific consensus, with human activities being the primary driver of this crisis over the past decade.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, when the temperature increases by 1.5 C, it could prove catastrophic for the over 3 billion people living in areas highly vulnerable to climate change. It is now a harsh reality that global temperatures have exceeded this limit for an entire year, for the first time in recorded history.
Unfortunately, the ongoing increase in global temperatures has been exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused disruptions in international travel. For instance, round-trip flights from Hong Kong to London now take two extra hours due to the airspace ban over Russia.
Last month, British Airways announced the suspension of its regular flight between London and Beijing from late October, which had only resumed in June 2023 after a three-year hiatus during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, Virgin Atlantic will also stop flying between London and Shanghai from Oct 25. These cancellations are mainly due to reduced passenger demand and the increased cost of diverting flight routes to avoid Russian airspace. They could affect the recovery of global tourism and efforts to reconnect the world after the pandemic.
The more significant negative consequence of the Russian-airspace ban is the increase in carbon emissions. Longer flight routes lead to increased fuel consumption and carbon emissions, as aircraft used for long-distance international flights emit around 90 kilograms of CO2 per passenger per hour. An additional two-hour flight for 400 passengers can result in around 72,000 kg of CO2 emissions, making this a significant contributor to global warming.
The issue of increased carbon emissions because of geopolitical tensions extends to the shipping industry as well. For instance, the ongoing war in Gaza has forced container ships to avoid the route via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, causing shipping companies to employ new routes, resulting in longer voyages and increased fuel consumption, driving many container shipping companies to add 10 to 14 days to voyages between Asia and Europe and add more vessels.
The transportation sector is one of the most significant contributors to pollution, with international shipping alone accounting for approximately 3 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. Cargo ships are reported to produce 16.14 grams of CO2 per kilometer for each metric ton of cargo they carry. The disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions have raised doubts about the sector’s ability to meet the International Maritime Organization’s mandate for a 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2030.
The effects of geopolitics on global warming extend beyond the shift in global supply chains and their impact on carbon emissions. The quest to decarbonize the global economy by 2050 has led to a significant shift in investment toward “cleantech”. However, the road to a carbon-neutral world must navigate the complexities of geopolitics
The effects of geopolitics on global warming extend beyond the shift in global supply chains and their impact on carbon emissions. The quest to decarbonize the global economy by 2050 has led to a significant shift in investment toward “cleantech”. However, the road to a carbon-neutral world must navigate the complexities of geopolitics.
China has made significant progress in green technology over the past decade, commanding 68 percent, 74 percent and 86 percent of global production for electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries and solar modules respectively. This accounts for a total value of over $150 billion, according to the China Green Trade Report 2023. China exports solar panels and lithium batteries to about 220 countries, while the export destinations of EVs had expanded to 175 countries by 2023.
The recent US and European tariffs on Chinese green exports could have significant repercussions on the adoption of EVs and ambitious climate targets. The US announced that it will impose large tariffs on a range of Chinese green exports, including a 100 percent tariff on EVs, a 25 percent tariff on lithium-ion batteries and a 50 percent tariff on solar cells. These tariffs may hinder the affordability and accessibility of key components for renewable energy technologies, potentially slowing down the transition to clean energy and affecting global efforts to combat climate change.
The price increases for EVs because of tariffs could deter consumers from switching away from internal combustion engine vehicles, potentially undermining the adoption of EVs at a time when momentum is just beginning to build. While China, Europe and the US are the largest markets for EVs, with a combined 95 percent of all sales in 2023, Chinese EVs have a leg up in terms of affordability compared with Western brands.
However, few Chinese EVs have been sold in the US. The US government’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese green exports has more to do with geopolitics. Such decisions could damage cooperation and undermine dialogue between the West and China on climate change. Increased geopolitical tension and trade friction could disrupt the development of green technologies and the promotion of sustainable development, highlighting the need for a more collaborative approach to tackling global warming.
Geopolitics and climate change are increasingly intertwined, with each influencing the other in complex ways. As the world moves toward decarbonization because of global warming, oil-exporting economies may have to deal with stranded assets and a loss of power. For example, fossil fuel exporting states such as Saudi Arabia may face significant challenges as the world shifts toward renewable energy sources.
Climate change is also shaping geopolitics in other ways, such as the new shipping route from Asia to Europe via the Arctic. As global warming causes the Arctic ice to melt, the Arctic Ocean is becoming more accessible, which could potentially connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This is leading to new geopolitical tensions and strategic considerations as countries seek to take advantage of the new shipping route and its potential economic benefits. Major global powers, including the US, Russia, China and the EU, are competing for influence in the region.
As the scorching summer slowly fades away, it’s becoming increasingly clear that geopolitical tensions are continuing to fuel global warming, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the planet. The sad truth is that we may be doomed to repeat this cycle of destruction and despair, waiting for another sweltering summer to hit us again next year.
The author is an associate vice-president of the University of Hong Kong, and the founding director of the HKU Institute for China Business.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
