Enhancing people-to-people exchanges can be first step toward improvement in bilateral ties

The distance between Tokyo and Beijing is greater than that between Beijing and Washington DC.

If you were a geography teacher in an elementary school, you would fail the student who wrote the above sentence. But from the perspective of the current political communication between Japan, China and the United States, there is nothing wrong with this expression.

The so-called China-US rivalry has intensified in recent years. Yet China and the US have been trying at the highest levels to normalize bilateral relations since President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden held a summit last November. More recently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen visited China.

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In contrast, high-level government-to-government exchanges between Japan and China are close to zero. The last time a Japanese Cabinet minister visited China was in April 2023 when then foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi made a trip to China. Incidentally, that was the first visit by a Japanese foreign minister to China in three years and three months. And the last time a Chinese foreign minister visited Japan was in November 2020, when Wang Yi made an official trip.

Even after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with the top Chinese leader in San Francisco last November, there have been no reciprocal visits by Japanese and Chinese ministers.

According to a hypothesis doing the rounds, the deterioration of Japan-China relations reflects the intensification of the Sino-US rift. This may be partly true. But the idea that the stabilization of Sino-US relations will automatically lead to an improvement in Sino-Japanese ties is wrong.

While the decline in China’s image among US citizens started accelerating, without any clear reason, in the early 2010s, the rapid deterioration among the Japanese people began as early as the 2000s.

Behind this shift was the dramatic change in the balance of power between the two countries. The stagnant Japanese economy was overtaken by the fast-developing Chinese economy in 2010. Along with this, the fact that the two countries are neighbors has made the Japanese people feel more threatened by China than Americans or Europeans.

More important, for those who want to free Japan from its postwar military asceticism, nothing is more convenient than the “China threat” theory to achieve their goal.

The frosty Japan-China relationship is extremely unfortunate for both sides. Obsessed with the idea that China is a threat, Tokyo is trying to deter Beijing by strengthening Japan’s military capabilities and security ties with the West, especially the US. However, if Japan interferes in the Taiwan question in order to strengthen the Japan-US alliance, a confrontation between Japan and China will become inevitable, leading to the opposite of what Japan wants.

The Japanese economy will not be able to recover from its slump without cooperation with China. As for China, Japan’s economic importance may have declined compared with that in the 20th century, but its strategic importance has increased due to Japan’s geographic location and the not-insignificant capabilities of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.

It is therefore necessary that the Japanese and Chinese governments increase their contacts at the ministerial level. It is desirable for Tokyo to officially and unequivocally state that it does not support “Taiwan independence”.

To normalize ties, Japan and China must implement what they agreed to during the meeting of the two countries’ leaders in November 2023. The two sides should resume the high-level economic dialogue as soon as possible and collaborate to promote the green economy.

The good news is that a China-Japan-Republic of Korea trilateral meeting has just taken place, during May 26-27, and also Liu Jianchao, head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, has made a trip to Japan this week. I hope these developments will be the beginning of a thaw.

Yet as someone who has been observing Japan’s political situation from Tokyo, I am not very optimistic about substantial improvement of Japan-China relations in the near term.

Since Japan’s House of Representatives will be dissolved and a general election held by July next year at the latest, even if China shows the will to improve bilateral ties, it is unlikely that Japanese policymakers will respond positively.

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The only way to improve Japan-China ties at present is to increase people-to-people exchanges. If the Japanese and Chinese people meet each other, they will realize that many of the messages coming from politicians and the media are propaganda.

In particular, it is important to revive exchanges between Japanese and Chinese youths through tourism and student exchange programs, and by revising visa policies. We may have to wait 10 years, though, for this to have an impact.

But if nothing is done, the distance between Japan and China will continue to grow. Let us not give up hope. After all, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

The author is a senior research fellow at the East Asian Community Institute, an independent private think tank based in Tokyo. 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.