SYDNEY – Global bond yields spiked to new highs and share markets slumped on Friday as soaring oil prices inflamed inflation risks, sending investors scrambling to price in more policy tightening from central banks across the globe.
Oil prices jumped 6 percent overnight, with Brent crude futures hitting a four-month high of $109.97 a barrel on Friday. Oil flows remained restricted through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Fighting between Houthi and Saudi-backed forces has surged in the past week, marking the most significant violence in Yemen in years, with maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb gravely imperiled by the Houthi advances," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets, tipping Brent could hit $121.99 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped overnight to close in on the critical 5 percent level, the 30-year hit the highest since 2007 and two-years surged 12 basis points overnight as markets ramped up bets that the US Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates this month to tame inflation, currently priced at 68 percent probability.
Asian bonds fell steeply on Friday, with Australia's three-year government bond yields surging 17 basis points to a 15-year high of 5.037 percent. Japan's 10-year government bond yields rose 5.5 basis points to 2.965 percent.
"We expect eight of the nine DM central banks to hike rates between now and year-end. This includes the Fed, BoJ, all four European central banks we cover, Australia, and New Zealand," said analysts at JPMorgan in a note.
"Canada is expected to remain the lonesome dove. The tightening is for now expected to remain shallow, but risks to our forecasts lean in the direction of more action in the face of resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and commodity price pressures."
The surge in oil prices has raised the stakes for US consumer prices data for August due later in the day, which may make or break the case of a Fed rate hike next week.
Forecasts are centered on a 0.2 percent monthly rise in the core measure of CPI, although risks are skewed towards a higher number as the PPI data overnight showed some stickiness.
Higher bond yields raised the discount rates used for corporate valuations, leaving Asian stocks in the red. Australia's resources-heavy slid 1 percent, Japan's Nikkei tumbled 2.8 percent and South Korea's KOSPI dived 2.7 percent.
Nasdaq futures fell 0.2 percent and S&P 500 futures were little changed.
The US dollar lifted with higher Treasury yields, having gained 0.4 percent overnight against its major peers. It was steady on Friday at 99.06.
In commodity markets, gold held at $4,317 an ounce after dropping nearly 2 percent overnight, failing to catch some of the safe-haven bids.
