To protect the United States and its allies’ strategic interests in the Middle East, Washington systematically constructed a US-dominated order in the region after the 1991 Gulf War, which has remained in place to date. Its main components include: The US using Israel as its primary proxy in the region, significantly strengthening its military power to defend its interests by deterring Arab countries and containing Iran; the US promoting reconciliation between Arab countries and Israel, encouraging them to establish normal diplomatic relations with Israel; the US making security commitments to Arab countries, particularly the Gulf states, selling them weapons of lower quality than those sold to Israel, and establishing myriad military bases in the region. For countries hostile to the US and Israel, particularly Syria, Libya, Iraq and Iran, the US and Israel employ various strategies, including military invasion, subversion, assassination of leaders, cultivation of opposition forces, and orchestration of regime change. The US-dominated order ensures oil-producing countries primarily use the US dollar in transactions, using oil dollars to purchase US Treasury bonds, allowing the dollar to maintain its status as an international currency, and enabling the US to keep interest rates low for a long period.
However, the order has failed to bring peace to the region. Since the 1990s, the Middle East has been plagued by incessant warfare, civil wars, economic hardship in non-oil-producing countries, displacement of people, and numerous humanitarian disasters.
Over the past two decades, the US’ hegemony and order in the Middle East have faced increasing challenges. Russia, after its reconstruction, has re-engaged in Middle Eastern affairs, particularly in Syria, and strengthened strategic cooperation with Iran. After the US overthrew Saddam Hussein, the power vacuum in Iraq was filled by pro-Iranian Shiite forces, making Iraq a strategic partner of Iran. The rise of extremist religious forces in Israel has led it to disregard US interests in the Middle East and use military force to attack neighboring countries and encroach on their territory. These extremist forces vehemently oppose Palestinian statehood and shrink Palestinian living space in Gaza and the West Bank. The rise of regional powers such as Turkiye and Saudi Arabia has also weakened US influence and strategic position in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China’s influence and strategic position in the region have continued to rise. Iran and many Arab countries have strengthened their cooperation with China in various areas. In 2023, China facilitated reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, long-time adversaries.
Recently, the US has been striving to strengthen its hegemony and order in the Middle East, while simultaneously seeking to reduce its involvement there and intensifying its containment of China in the Indo-Pacific. These efforts have yielded some results. The US facilitated the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab countries. Israel launched a fierce offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, significantly weakening their power and Iran’s influence in the region. In Syria, the opposition forces, after overthrowing the Assad regime, turned hostile to Iran and attempted to court the US. However, given the US’ intention to shift its strategic focus to containing China, some Middle Eastern countries are seeking alternative security strategies, with some Arab countries even having attempted to improve relations with Iran and Pakistan.
The Iran war has harmed the entire world, undoubtedly damaging the US’ reputation, credibility, and soft power. More allies will distrust Washington’s security commitments and adopt alternative security strategies. US global hegemony will become unsustainable, and the international order will undergo a reconstruction
As Iran faced both internal and external difficulties, including riots, Israel and the US saw an opportunity to eliminate the Iranian “threat” in one fell swoop. Last year, Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran, while the US carried out unprecedented bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, Iran did not yield, and its nuclear facilities were not obliterated. In February, Israel and the US launched an unprecedentedly fierce war against Iran, aiming to overthrow its government. However, the war has forced the Iranian people to unite as one and fight back at all costs.
Latest developments confirmed that the war against Iran was a serious strategic miscalculation. The US significantly underestimated Iran’s strength and fighting spirit, making its victory illusory. Despite suffering heavy losses, Iran has effectively waged asymmetric warfare, severely damaging US military bases and facilities as well as energy infrastructure in the region, and effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy export route. This has dealt a heavy blow to the US and its allies militarily, diplomatically, and economically, turning the conflict into a war of attrition and a global energy crisis, which could ultimately bring about the collapse of the US-dominated Middle East order and severely undermine its global hegemony.
First, Iran has shattered the myth of American “invincibility”. Even if Iran cannot defeat the US, as long as Iran remains standing, the US would have, in effect, lost the war. After the war, the scenario of weaker US influence and an “undefeatable” Iran in the Middle East favors Iran.
Second, many Arab countries realized during this war that the US was pursuing an “Israel First” policy in the Middle East. Having ignored the opposition and concerns of its Western allies and Arab states, the US, without any strategic planning or assessment of the endgame, joined Israel in launching a war against Iran. This triggered Iran’s fierce counterattacks on US military bases in Arab countries, making those countries also victims of the war and causing them severe economic losses. These Arab countries now realize that the US is incapable of safeguarding their security; they will certainly reconsider their relationship with Washington. While many Arab leaders have close ties with the US, most of the people in those countries harbor strong anti-American and anti-Israel sentiments. These sentiments have been fueled by the war against Iran as well as Israel’s atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank and its military attacks and territorial ambitions against other Arab countries. These sentiments will increasingly influence Arab leaders’ policies toward the US and Israel.
Third, the indomitable spirit displayed by Iran against the US and Israel will earn the admiration and respect of Arab people. They will also feel proud to be Muslims because of the courage, fearlessness, and decisiveness shown by Iranian Shia Muslims. The war is expected to boost the morale, pride, and unity of Muslims worldwide, which is detrimental to US hegemony.
Fourth, after this war, many Americans, including some “Make America Great Again” supporters, will be even more opposed to Washington’s excessive intervention in the Middle East and prioritizing Israel over their own interests. Fierce internal strife within the US will set in, exacerbating already severely divided politics and society and prompting more Americans to support an “isolationist” foreign policy.
The Iran war has harmed the entire world, undoubtedly damaging the US’ reputation, credibility, and soft power. More allies will distrust Washington’s security commitments and adopt alternative security strategies. US global hegemony will become unsustainable, and the international order will undergo a reconstruction.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
