A blast of frigid Arctic air is set to sweep across Asia next week, pushing temperatures toward potentially record lows and likely boosting heating demand in key energy markets.
The cold snap is being driven by low-pressure systems high in the atmosphere, which are allowing the icy Arctic air to spill across several regions worldwide, including Asia, according to meteorologists and major weather models. Temperatures in Beijing and Shanghai could plunge by about 20 °C through Wednesday, as shown by forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration.
Across China and Korea, readings may drop more than 10 °C below normal levels, with some locations nearing records based on model guidance as of Thursday, said Takahisa Nishikawa, a Japan-based senior decision support meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Atmospheric G2.
“Late January through February is likely to remain colder than usual, which points to increased heating demand across East Asia,” he added.
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East Asia’s winter has so far been quite mild. China’s mean temperature last month was 1.8 °C above the historical average, making it the second-warmest December on record, according to the country’s National Climate Center. Japan has also experienced near-to-slightly-above normal temperatures.
Still, the upcoming cold wave “stands out for both the intensity of the cold air and its spatial extent,” said Nishikawa. If current forecasts hold, January could be the coldest across East Asia since 2021, he added.
Cold weather has pushed demand for heating and propelled North Asian liquefied natural gas prices to the highest in over a month this week. Traders fear that a prolonged cold spell could boost competition between Asia and Europe for shipments of the heating fuel and drive prices further.
The cold shift is expected to reach northeastern China first, before spreading to the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and then pushing south into the densely populated central and eastern regions of China, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
While the situation is expected to be less severe in Japan, the country’s meteorological agency has issued a nationwide warning cautioning against very low temperatures from Jan 21 onward.
The interaction of cold air and moisture picked up over the Sea of Japan will increase cloud cover and snowfall, limiting daytime warming, said David Berry, a consultant meteorologist for MetraWeather. Together with brisk winds, that will make conditions feel colder than the thermometer suggests, he added.
