Diversified export markets, proactive fiscal policy underlined for stability

Even though an increasingly challenging external environment clouds global economic prospects, China will continue to serve as a reliable engine of growth and a pillar of stability for the world, experts said.

"Global growth will decelerate to 2.6 percent in 2025, down from 2.9 percent in 2024," said Anastasia Nesvetailova, director of the Macroeconomic and Development Policies Branch of the UN Trade and Development, at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday.

In China, however, a rapid diversification of export markets, coupled with a more proactive fiscal policy featuring consumer incentives, transfers to households, infrastructure investment and an accommodative monetary stance, collectively fueled the expansion of economic activity, according to the Trade and Development Report 2025 released by UNCTAD.

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In particular, the "dynamic stability" forged between China and the United States late in October indicated that there is a willingness from both nations to "engage in dialogue and assure new rules, new certainties and new conditions of trading with each other", she said.

This extends far beyond their bilateral relations. This critical development injects a vital dose of certainty into the global economy as well, she said.

Nesvetailova also cautioned that the slowdown expected in the aftermath of front-loaded imports will spill into 2026, weighing on growth. Despite potential gains from new technologies like artificial intelligence, global growth is projected to remain subdued in 2026, at 2.6 percent.

The International Monetary Fund also revised China's GDP forecast upward to 5 percent for 2025 on Wednesday, a 0.2 percentage point increase from October, while the Asian Development Bank lifted the Chinese mainland's 2025 growth forecast to 4.8 percent, compared with 4.7 percent in the September edition.

China's GDP grew 5.2 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed in October.

Wang Xuekun, head of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, part of the Ministry of Commerce, noted that China's foreign trade, a key engine of the economy, has demonstrated great resilience this year despite external challenges.

China's total goods imports and exports, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, rose to 41.21 trillion yuan ($5.82 trillion) in the first 11 months of this year, up 3.6 percent year-on-year.

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Wang said that the core competitiveness of Chinese exports continues to intensify. This is not solely based on price advantages but is increasingly fueled by innovation, supply chain resilience and a strategic push into higher value-added sectors.

Meanwhile, China has also been taking proactive steps to open its massive domestic market and expand high-quality imports through initiatives like "Export to China" to balance import and export growth, Wang added.

Liao Fan, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of World Economics and Politics, said that China, as a major trading nation, has been steadfast in its efforts to foster inclusive development, not only advancing its own growth but also sharing its super-sized market with the Global South to capitalize on development opportunities.

Contact the writers at wangkeju@chinadaily.com.cn