In an increasingly complex and dangerous world, few people nowadays seem to be across the granular detail often needed to really appreciate and understand how things work, and how situations might even pan out more advantageously if only the nuanced subtlety evident from careful appraisal of evidence and complex data threads were appreciated and acted on more judiciously.

Instead, many depend on the provision of a “cheat sheet”, often from subordinates who might be ill-equipped or too pressured themselves to seek out deeper meaning and reveal a hidden but inherent risk. It’s a dangerous proposition with huge responsibility placed on those whose role it is to try to distil and choose between voluminous information streams both reliable and unreliable (but where it is increasingly difficult to tell easily which is which). This is especially germane if global decision-makers surround themselves with ill-equipped acolytes. These individuals must distil and present the essence of detailed knowledge as small bites for simple, rapid digestion by those more senior who require them to aid their businesses, activities, planning, resource allocation, spending, or even military action.

The trouble is that often it is not actually possible to convey, in such a simple way, certain complex issues and propositions as the basis upon which to arrive at correct, more informed decisions. Sometimes the devil really is in the detail, and woe betide those who ignore the devil. Perhaps artificial intelligence will soon be able to do it all and I should just stop worrying.

In Hong Kong, job performance pressure is a serious problem especially when having to work in such a complex, data-rich environment and provide accurate appraisals in short order. This often leads to ill-advised shortcuts being taken and overreliance on AI models that are touted as efficient timesavers but are trained on the same, sometimes imperfect, data sets.

So, for very busy and important people in major decision-making positions in our city, reference to soundbites, bullet points, and one-page summaries are often the order of the day. They increasingly rely, it seems, on such brief briefing documents to regularly inform their decision-making. This is regardless of whether they are captains of Hong Kong’s industry, CEOs of our listed companies, senior management at our globally elite universities, banking gurus, politicians or senior leaders of all kinds. It is a malaise of the data-rich and increasingly data-manipulated modern, rapidly evolving, time-poor world we find ourselves in. This is generally true but especially in such a fast-paced, highly packed and commercially focused metropolis like Hong Kong. It also depends on a high level of trust in the abilities of the summary providers.

Here, the rapid advance of AI is also being weaponized to convince you to buy something, believe something, or act on something that might not actually be based on objective reality and real data. Deep fakes are getting disturbingly good these days and it is sometimes hard to tell what is real and what is not. This is where context and attention to detail and investigation of diverse sources are often the key to better understanding and decision-making. In short, a meticulous, forensic approach to data, provenance, accuracy and reliability is advised for a truly informed decision process to occur. Too often it is lacking, and when entire populations are involved in key decisions based on such cursory and unreliable summaries it can lead to serious, negative outcomes, just like Brexit in the United Kingdom. 

Many people merely dip their toes in the waters of knowledge about critical issues while others might paddle in the shallows. We need to firmly grasp underlying granular detail to reveal a more fundamental truth. It is this which leads to better understanding, more informed action and better choices

As a forensic scientist, I seem to be increasingly at odds with the brief summary approach to life choices when sharing ideas, opinions and knowledge. Often my explanatory e-mails are too long, too complex and too detailed for hierarchies to even bother reading. It is as frustrating as it is disheartening. I do console myself with knowing that I am at least personally acquainted with the fine detail and precise, underpinning, reliable data that informs my attempts at objective assessment and opinion forming. I have not yet succumbed to the temptation to get AI to do all this or even write this and other opinion pieces. Am I foolish, a purist or just plain old-fashioned?

In any event we are confronted with a modern world that is an increasingly complex place with bewildering levels of data from the massive growth in recording mechanisms, sensors, satellites and communications technologies bombarding us from every direction via a multitude of news and social media feeds, some of very dubious intent. This is notwithstanding unsolicited and bulk e-mails with ever more devious ways to get around our spam filters. Hence, given our limited human abilities to process, discriminate among and assimilate such vast data richness, we resort to skimming with the multitude of mini-Brexit like individual outcomes this can lead to. Many people merely dip their toes in the waters of knowledge about critical issues while others might paddle in the shallows. Rarely do some bother to undertake a deeper dive — we are not talking the Mariana Trench, but at least periscope depth for better viewing of the issues at hand.

So I lament the current situation of a data-rich but decision-poor world. We need to firmly grasp underlying granular detail to reveal a more fundamental truth. It is this which leads to better understanding, more informed action and better choices. In the current era of tariff mania and warmongering, I would contend that China has a better grasp.

The author is director of the Laboratory for Space Research at the University of Hong Kong.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.