In January 1979, or 45 years ago, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping traveled to the United States and met with the Carter administration. There, the two countries formalized the normalization of their diplomatic relations, concluding a seven-year process that commenced with Henry Kissinger’s and Richard Nixon’s visits to Beijing. Over that period, the two countries negotiated and reconciled their differences through three communiques and ultimately achieved a principle of coexistence. This in turn forged what is unarguably the single most important diplomatic relationship in the world today.
Of course, since that time, the world has changed significantly. The Cold War era in which this relationship was forged passed on. The US’ intention to open relations with China had been premised on the logic of countering the Soviet Union, but with it was also a bridled optimism that engagement with American business, integration into the world and “opening-up”, as it was called, would be profoundly beneficial for both parties. To this end, the foundation of US-China relations helped pioneer a mighty change in China that saw it develop into a global economic powerhouse — something which, contrary to the hostile rhetoric of today, has been profoundly beneficial to the US, unlocking the bonanza of the Chinese market.
However, the US’ ideas about China have long since changed. A misleading train of thought has become dominant in Washington, DC, that the relationship with China should not be viewed in interdependent, mutually beneficial and relative terms, but as a zero-sum game of “win” or “lose”, which erroneously depicts China’s gain as the US’ loss, which subsequently rolls over into the idea that the US is locked in an uncompromising struggle for global hegemony with Beijing, which ought to require the rollback of globalization, the cutting up of supply chains, forcing countries to take sides, forming confrontational coalitions, and at worst, even preparing for war. The idea that both countries could get along and coexist is treated as taboo by many.
In spite of this, 2023 was, despite its disastrous start, a more reasonable year in US-China relations, which ushered in more stability. President Xi Jinping, after all, made an official visit to the US at the APEC meetings in San Francisco and met with US President Joe Biden. While the results of this meeting cannot be called a substantial breakthrough, it was nonetheless a “cooling off” that gave more assurance and provided more room for engagement. It changed little regarding the fundamentals of US policy, yet it also steered away from the deterioration created by the policies of two successive administrations and prevented a worst-case scenario.
The US and China absolutely can coexist, and the two are capable of navigating global challenges together and finding a position serving the “greater good”
But critics might argue that this provides little assurance for the coming year, which will perhaps be another unpredictable period because the international situation around the world has continued to deteriorate, with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine ongoing — all symptoms of the wider perception of “geopolitical competition” becoming the fundamental rhythm of international relations. We do not have any certainty as to how either of these conflicts may end, or what the ongoing consequences of the contingencies will have around the world, which will undoubtedly, either directly or indirectly, impact US-China relations as well as those of the US’ allies.
In addition to that, there is also the US presidential election looming, and one should expect China-bashing and a potential “race to the bottom” to become an influential factor that may disrupt relations and political decision making. The presidency will want to prove that it has been tough on China, and that it is successfully bringing jobs back to the US. In this case, it is even more important to promote conciliatory relations and compromise between the two countries and to avoid creating situations that can promote the escalation of tensions, which critics may jump upon and therefore create new crises. 2024 to this end should be a year of diplomatic caution and restraint.
But amid all this, the bigger picture should not be lost — US-China relations have thrived and succeeded for 45 years now. Both countries have, in spite of many differences, learned to accept and manage those differences, and why should it change now? And why should all those years be squandered through pursuit of ideological and hegemonic goals? The US and China absolutely can coexist, and the two are capable of navigating global challenges together and finding a position serving the “greater good”. We should look back on these fond memories and also be prepared to be optimistic that things can get better, and in turn challenge the “fatalistic” view that assumes both countries must struggle against each other until one side is victorious. US-China relations were built on the premise that two countries with very different ideologies can in fact get along; that there does not need to be an existential struggle; and that they can in fact benefit from each other. We can only see through how 2024 will play out.
The author is a British political and international relations analyst.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
