ndia's Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures to supporters from a car during a road show ahead of the seventh phase of the Uttar Pradesh state assembly elections in Varanasi on March 4, 2022. (SANJAY KANOJIA / AFP)

NEW DELHI - Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is set to keep control of India's most populous state on Thursday as officials begin the count in a state assembly vote that will offer clues to the national mood before the next general election, due by 2024.

The Bharatiya Janata Party has long predicted it would retain the northern state because of policies such as free staples for the poor during the pandemic, a crackdown on crime, and its popularity among the Hindu majority reinforced by the construction of a temple on the site of a razed mosque

Opinion polls have predicted a comfortable majority for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, despite the government's much-criticized handling of COVID-19, high unemployment, and anger over farm reforms that Modi cancelled last year after protests.

ALSO READ: Voting underway in India's most populous state

The BJP has long predicted it would retain the northern state because of policies such as free staples for the poor during the pandemic, a crackdown on crime, and its popularity among the Hindu majority reinforced by the construction of a temple on the site of a razed mosque.

In elections in four smaller states over the past month, the Aam Aadmi Party that governs the national capital territory of Delhi is projected to win in Punjab, while the races are tight in BJP-ruled Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand.

ALSO READ: OIE: India reported outbreak of H5N1 bird flu

Uttar Pradesh is home to about a fifth of India's 1.35 billion people and sends the most legislators to parliament of any state.

It has long been said that without winning Uttar Pradesh and the neighboring state of Bihar, no party or coalition has much hope of securing a majority in parliament. The BJP has been in power in both.

For decades, Uttar Pradesh was a stronghold of the main opposition Congress party but it has been unable to stem a slide in is popularity over recent years.

READ MORE: India urged to treat Chinese tech enterprises fairly

If Modi's party holds Uttar Pradesh as expected, opposition hopes of a united front to challenge him in the next general election will be dented.

A win in Uttar Pradesh would also be a seal of approval for Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath, who was surprisingly chosen as chief minister for Uttar Pradesh five year ago and is seen as a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP.