Following the World Health Organization declaration of the coronavirus situation as a pandemic, Hong Kong will have to brace itself for the worst economic downturn it has ever experienced.

We are not only teetering on the brink of an “economic ice age” — as I mentioned in my previous column — but very likely we are soon going to fall into a bottomless pit.

At this stage, we still haven’t seen the worst. The most worrying factor is the risk of being trapped in this “ice age” with no hope of getting out.

One ominous sign is the latest unemployment rate between December and February, which came in at 3.7 percent — up from 3.4 percent for the three months ended January. The figure is the highest in nine years. It means nearly 12,000 more people lose their jobs, if it reaches 4 percent, as predicted by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po. Similarly, some experts have estimated it to be at 5 percent, which is equivalent to another 30,000 people losing their jobs.

As the coronavirus outbreak continues to wreak havoc with the economy, the jobless rate is expected to get worse in coming months.

To put it bluntly, cutting ties with the mainland is a suicidal move for Hong Kong. And the anti-government camp’s movement to keep attacking “blue” businesses — which are pro-establishment — in order to grow the “yellow economy” — which is pro-opposition — is a death wish

According to the latest government data, for the consumption and tourism-related sectors, the jobless rate surged to 6.1 percent — the highest in about a decade. The food-and-beverage services sector also saw its unemployment rate soar to 7.5 percent.

To put this in context, the jobless rate for the same month nine years ago was 3.8 percent. It reached an all-time high of 8.5 percent in June 2003 when the city was battered by the SARS outbreak.   

Chan said in his official blog on Sunday that global economic volatility has put pressure on the city, with the catering, retail, hotel, and construction sectors being the hardest hit.

Needless to say, we have witnessed the scaling back, suspension or closure of many business operations — big and small — in Hong Kong. Many workers across many sectors have been forced to take unpaid leave. 

One undeniable fact is that we need continued support from the central government to survive this crisis, as we did during the severe acute respiratory syndrome and the financial crises.

I therefore urge the political opposition in Hong Kong to stop all obstructive and damaging moves such as encouraging Hong Kong people to sever all ties with the mainland. Their actions would only deny the city’s recovery on all fronts and hurt our ability to come back in from the cold and resurrect our economy.

There is no way we can cut our ties with the mainland. We have for as long as one can remember been tied to it to a point that it’s like being intrinsically connected. This close relationship spans the full cycle of life.

This connection with the mainland clothes us, feeds us, houses us, and provides transport and even coffins when we pass away. The mainland literally provides us with all the necessities from the cradle to the grave.

One major revenue source is mainland tourists, who made up 78 percent of our total arrivals in the first 10 months of 2019.

Retail sales in Hong Kong plummeted by 21.4 percent in January, worse than the 19.4 percent drop in December.

Luxury items were worst hit, with jewelry, watches, clocks, and valuable gifts down almost 41.6 percent.

Medicines and cosmetics had a more than 32 percent drop in business, while sales in clothes were down 28.9 percent, with department stores seeing a drop of 27 percent in business.

Similar figures were reported in government data released in February. Total retail sales in December were down by 19.4 percent, estimated at HK$36.2 billion (US$4.66 billion), compared with the same month in 2018.

And total retail sales in November decreased by 23.7 percent compared with a year before.

The pandemic will pass one day, but will mainland tourists return after that?

My concern is they might not because of the increasing anti-mainland sentiment and antics displayed in the ongoing anti-government protests, which began in June. 

The coronavirus will disappear eventually, but mainland tourists’ fear of being unfairly targeted will probably not, at least not in the near future.

The mainland provides us lifelines in all aspects of life, including the food we eat, like pork and vegetables, and the water we drink. We have been channeling water from Dongjiang to meet local demand and make up for shortfalls since 1965.

The mainland supplies us with meat like pork, which is the most popular meat item in Hong Kong. We should note that whenever there is a health scare, the mainland closes its live poultry slaughtering locations and trading, and this often has a serious indirect effect on the city’s supply.

Now with a worldwide panic and the stockpiling of toilet paper, we should be worried because most of our supply comes from the mainland.

To put it bluntly, cutting ties with the mainland is a suicidal move for Hong Kong. And the anti-government camp’s movement to keep attacking “blue” businesses — which are pro-establishment — in order to grow the “yellow economy” — which is pro-opposition — is a death wish.

Splitting the Hong Kong economy along political lines will eventually drive the city into a dead end.

When the opposition advocates the so-called “yellow economic circle”, are they envisioning a future, where Hong Kong no longer needs anything from daily supplies to economic support, from the mainland?

The opposition should also note that even our construction sector depends on the mainland for the supply of prefabricated housing modules.

Another business that relies heavily on the mainland and was previously growing fast is insurance; some 25 percent of its income comes from mainland clients.

On the business side, the combination of anti-government protests and the virus outbreak has pulled sales of insurance policies to mainland clients because industry rules require policyholders be physically present in the city to finalize a contract. Insurance sales to mainland Chinese customers have fallen nearly 20 percent in the third quarter of last year due to unrelenting protests. And now with the virus, the figures are expected to get even worse.

On the employment side, a lot of university graduates, including those with master’s and doctoral degrees, are in the insurance and wealth management fields due to their mainland connections and the prosperous market.

If the mainland market dries up, these people will be unable to find jobs and the insurance sector will be greatly affected.

Meanwhile, about 70 percent of post-graduate students come from the mainland. They pay full cost-recovery fees at our universities. If they are reluctant to study here, it will take away a huge amount of universities’ revenues.

Speaking of postgraduate students, a lot of them chose to become research assistants even though these are relatively low-paying jobs. If there is a drop in these students, it will certainly affect the research projects of many professors in Hong Kong.

Severing or damaging ties with the mainland would have serious and multiple consequences that are unimaginable. Our collective efforts should be on how to crawl out of this bottomless pit and out of the “ice age” before it’s too late — if it isn’t already too late.

The author is president of Wisdom Hong Kong, a think tank.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.