In recent months, “dual circulation” has become the focus of China’s development strategy, attracting attention from home and abroad. Since the “two sessions” in May, the central government has repeatedly emphasized that it would need a new economic development pattern whereby domestic and foreign markets can boost each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay.
Speaking at a recent socioeconomic forum, President Xi Jinping said that the “dual circulation” pattern would be the highlight of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). Hong Kong’s role was described at length in the previous two five-year plans, suggesting that the central government in Beijing has also reserved a seat for Hong Kong in the country’s new development blueprint. In the face of an increasingly complex global geopolitical landscape, Hong Kong has to pay more attention to its future role in the national development strategy and study the “dual circulation” development strategy as early as possible, as this development pattern is of far-reaching significance to Hong Kong’s future.
“Dual circulation” is a new strategic concept that the central authorities have come up with in response to China’s own development needs and the evolution of the global geopolitical landscape. While the details of this concept are still being enriched and finalized, Hong Kong must understand some key elements in this new development pattern in order to find itself a proper position and role.
With a clear and correct understanding of the new national development pattern, Hong Kong should have confidence and proactively explore its role in “dual circulation”
Many discussions now focus on the notion of “the domestic market as the mainstay”, and quite a few commentators have incorrectly believed that China will take the path of isolationism and protectionism, similar to what the United States is doing. It is clearly a misconception. Over the years, China has proactively pursued the path of opening up, and played a positive role in promoting international trade as well as in optimizing global governance. China has been vigorously opposed to isolationism, protectionism and unilateralism over the years. Hence, it should not be difficult for a serious thinker to realize that “the domestic market as the mainstay” is merely part of the new development pattern, with the other part being “domestic and foreign markets boost each other”. The combination of the two parts forms the complete development blueprint, which should not be interpreted out of context.
Furthermore, it would be ignorant of China’s national conditions to say that the new development pattern is a reaction to the intensifying Sino-US rivalry and worsening global geopolitical landscape. The development of any country in the world is essentially a “path dependent” journey, which means adjusting policies based on its previous footsteps. China’s national development has shifted from rapid growth to high-quality growth. To facilitate this transition, the country must adopt a new development model, which entails formulating a novel national development strategy. Hence, the new development pattern of “dual circulation” is an active, strategic response to China’s own development needs.
The global geopolitical landscape indeed underwent a sea change in the past two years; but since it is a once-in-a-century major shift, it not only affects China but also poses challenges to all nations around the world. Each and every country has to devise new strategies to cope with this sea change, which is also a litmus test for their political wisdom and governance efficiency. In tackling this challenge, China is hopefully to demonstrate to the world the systematic advantages of its unique governing model and systematic planning approach.
With a clear and correct understanding of the new national development pattern, Hong Kong should have confidence and proactively explore its role in “dual circulation”. Conceivably, Hong Kong’s international standing and experience can help it become an important interface between the domestic and external circulations. Hong Kong should also specifically strengthen its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development, and help turn the Bay Area into an engine of the new national development pattern. In recent months, however, the COVID-19 pandemic has cut off the exchanges between Hong Kong and other Bay Area cities. Once the pandemic subsides, Hong Kong should sum up its experience and introduce special measures to promote exchanges among Bay Area cities, so as to reinforce the support for Hong Kong residents who work, invest and live in other Bay Area cities. This will be a complex process of institutional reengineering that Hong Kong must act on as soon as possible.
The author is senior research officer of the One Country Two Systems Research Institute.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
