On Oct 21, Cathay Pacific announced the closure of its subsidiary airline Cathay Dragon with immediate effect. In a bid to focus on keeping Cathay Pacific afloat, 8,500 staff under the Cathay brand — which includes around 2,500 Cathay Dragon staff — are being made redundant.

Despite dwindling case numbers, the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong shows few signs of being eliminated. Local cases are still being recorded, which is a strong indication that asymptomatic carriers are still running amok in the city.

The connection between COVID-19 and the closure of Cathay Dragon is obvious: Hong Kong’s travel industry has been suffering first because of the disturbances that started last year and then the virus.

The Hong Kong Tourism Board reported that the number of visitors had dropped by a staggering 92.4 percent over the course of 2020, with the past month being the worst, compared to the same period of the previous year.

Even with the newly announced “standardized hygiene protocols” that are being rolled out, Hong Kong’s economy and particularly the tourism and related sectors are still in dire straits.

In a bid to give Hong Kong’s economy a much-needed boost, the SAR government and the Singaporean government have been in talks to establish a bilateral travel bubble.

This would allow travelers to move between the two cities without having to quarantine, provided they test COVID-negative before departure and upon arrival, and before returning to their home city and upon arrival in their home city.

Last year, Hong Kong received more than 453,000 visitors from Singapore, and Singapore received 489,000 visitors from Hong Kong. And considering these figures, it seems probable that both cities will see some growth in their tourism figures.

But is this the way forward for Hong Kong?

Compared with its ties to the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong has tenuous ties to Singapore. The need to establish a travel bubble with the mainland and Macao are far more obvious and far more pressing. But the creation of this particular bubble is still a ways off.

Meanwhile, the 538,000 Hong Kong people who usually stay in Guangdong province, together with equally huge numbers who are in other parts of the mainland, remain confined to north of the boundary.

Why can’t we establish a travel bubble with the mainland as well? Hong Kong’s ties to the mainland are far more pervasive than they are to Singapore.

In the design of the travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore, travelers will have to shell out HK$4,000 (US$516) alone for the four COVID-19 tests required to travel to and from Singapore. This cost, on top of the price of a return ticket, could be a big impediment for Hong Kong residents who are already having to cut back on their expenses.

It is thus questionable as to how many will actually be willing to spend that much money.

We ought to be spending more time regaining the confidence of mainland authorities, so that Hong Kong would be regarded safe enough to be included in a travel bubble.

Not only will this reset Hong Kong-mainland relations, but will give the boost that Hong Kong’s tourism sector sorely needs. A travel bubble with Singapore will help, but the benefits of a Hong Kong-mainland travel bubble will be far greater.

So how can we work toward this?

First, we must eliminate all local COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong, just as the mainland has and is continuing to maintain. The mainland’s universal testing program has led to a rapid reduction in infections, and now only a handful of imported cases are reported daily.

The city of Qingdao, located on the coast of the Yellow Sea, tested its entire population of 9 million over a five-day period using a mixed-sample approach. Similarly, all 11 million of Wuhan’s residents were tested in May.

The central government extended the same courtesy to Hong Kong and offered a universal testing program for its 7.5 million residents. Sadly, the opportunity was turned down. Instead, a voluntary community program was instituted for a fortnight and attracted only 1.7 million residents.

Aside from poor publicity, voluntary testing failed to drum up larger numbers due to various reasons. Post-program surveys indicated that over half of Hong Kong residents were unwilling to come forth for testing due to concerns such as demands on their time, and having to quarantine if they tested positive for the virus.

These reasons might well be valid, but the point about universal testing is what it says — universal — and to achieve this, we have to make it compulsory. This, as the mainland has admirably demonstrated, is the only way to achieve the “zero local case” target.

As it will probably be difficult to institute compulsory universal testing after the failure of the voluntary community testing program, I propose the following two measures.

First, open a unilateral travel corridor between Hong Kong and the mainland that allows mainland residents to come to Hong Kong without having to quarantine as they are risk-free of having COVID-19. This will solve the problem of waning tourism figures in Hong Kong, as mainland visitors contribute a great deal to the tourism sector as well as other parts of the economy. They will be allowed to move freely within the city.

Second, put limitations on Hong Kong residents who refuse to get tested. This would mean banning them from public places, including those in their residential areas and the use of public transportation. This means that until they test negative for COVID-19, they will have to stay at home.

The third wave of the pandemic is nowhere near as bad as it was in the summer, but no one should feel complacent. And with winter around the corner, we may even be seeing a fourth wave of infections. Experts say that up to 10,000 may become infected and our hospitals will become overwhelmed to the breaking point.

The Cathay Dragon failure and other layoffs are not isolated incidents. They do not bode well for tourism and other sectors. It may well be the tip of the iceberg. Most if not all businesses will fall one after another like dominoes. Even the private medical-services sector has been under financial strains. Far fewer patients are going to the clinics because of the fear of contracting COVID-19, and elective operations are being postponed indefinitely. 

If we are to survive, we cannot rely on Hong Kong’s feng shui. We have to take decisive and possibly unpleasant decisions and act swiftly. Otherwise, this winter will bring not only the fourth wave of the pandemic, but also the Great Depression to our economy. 

The author is president of Wisdom Hong Kong, a think tank.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.