Hong Kong’s trade promotion body warned on Tuesday that the city’s exports this year would record their largest decline in more than a decade due to the novel coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing threat of trade protectionism.
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) predicted that the SAR’s exports would plunge 10 percent in value in 2020 — the worst performance since 2009 when they plummeted 12.6 percent during the global financial crisis. This marked a significant downgrade of its previous forecast that exports would drop 2 percent in 2020.
According to our survey, importers and exporters maintain a rather pessimistic outlook on all major industries and the market as a whole
Nicholas Kwan Ka-ming,
research director of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council
HKTDC research director Nicholas Kwan Ka-ming explained the forecast revision was mainly due to worrying findings from its survey.
Among 500 surveyed importers and exporters, as many as 82 percent said they suffered a year-on-year 10 percent slump in sales and revenues during the second quarter of the year.
Nearly 98 percent of respondents said the virus had affected their businesses.
Kwan said: “According to our survey, importers and exporters maintain a rather pessimistic outlook on all major industries and the market as a whole.”
Looking ahead, more than 64 percent cited the coronavirus pandemic as the toughest challenge they have to face. Sluggish global demand and Sino-US trade tensions were also seen as major future challenges.
The mainland is introducing measures to restart the economy. A set of economic indicators, including industrial production and fixed investments, are showing signs of a recovery. More stimulus measures will be launched to boost domestic consumption. Nicholas Kwan said this would be a boon to Hong Kong’s exports
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has already warned that global trade in 2020 could fall by between 13 percent and 32 percent. During the 2009 global financial crisis, trade fell by 12.5 percent.
The HKTDC was set up in 1966 as an advisory and marketing body with the task of creating international opportunities for Hong Kong businesses. It has 50 offices around the world — including 13 on the mainland.
