Experts: Japan governor race may boost US security ties, raise regional tensions

The gubernatorial election in Japan's Okinawa Prefecture could give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government greater leeway to expand military deployments and deepen security cooperation with the United States in the southernmost islands, experts say.

The result could heighten regional tensions and the risk of an arms race, while leaving Okinawa residents struggling to balance military buildup with economic and livelihood concerns, they said.

Genta Koja, 42, backed by Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party and other parties, defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki on Monday, marking the first victory by an LDP-backed candidate in the gubernatorial race since 2010.

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Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at Tokyo's Hosei University, said political constraints on the Takaichi government's plans to advance the Henoko base relocation, strengthen defense capabilities in Okinawa and deepen Japan-US security cooperation had become "almost nonexistent".

Opposition parties in Japan's Parliament are divided and have limited influence, while Okinawa now has a governor who supports the Henoko relocation, Shiratori said.

Tamaki opposed relocating the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma from Ginowan to the coastal Henoko area in Nago, as well as further Self-Defense Forces deployments in the islands and joint military exercises with the US.

Koja, by contrast, supported the relocation plan and closer coordination with the central government.

Under a 1996 Japan-US agreement, Futenma is to be relocated to Henoko despite strong local opposition. Former governor Takeshi Onaga opposed the move, a stance continued by Tamaki.

Nikkei Asia reported that only three of 12 candidate airports and ports in Okinawa had been designated for use by the Self-Defense Forces and Japan Coast Guard as of 2024. Most of the remaining sites are controlled by the prefectural government and require the governor's approval, which Tamaki declined to give.

Koja, who has described Okinawa's security environment as increasingly severe, has called further development of such facilities extremely important.

Atsushi Koketsu, professor emeritus at Yamaguchi University, said Okinawa's role as a major area for military bases and defense deployments could expand further, giving the Takaichi government greater room to respond to US security demands.

With greater political confidence, the Takaichi government could increasingly cite regional contingencies to justify a tougher security stance and rhetoric toward China, he said.

Shiratori of Hosei University warned that further military buildup in Okinawa could upset the regional balance of power and even trigger an arms race.

Japan, as a self-described "peaceful nation", should pursue peace and mutual understanding through diplomacy and seek cooperation with China to maintain regional stability, he said.

Economic platform

Koja also broadened his support with an economic platform focused on raising incomes amid higher prices and growing pressure on household finances.

Prefectural government data show that its per capita income remains the lowest in Japan.

Shiratori said the US military base issue had become less important than in the 2022 gubernatorial election. Voters have traditionally swung between "economic growth" and "military bases", but this time they "chose economic growth", he said.

An exit poll by public broadcaster NHK showed that 49 percent of voters cited the economy and rising consumer prices as their top concerns, with about 70 percent of them voting for Koja.

Koketsu of Yamaguchi University said conservatives had deliberately avoided making the military base issue central to the campaign, instead emphasizing livelihoods and economic revitalization.

He also attributed Koja's victory to conservative unity and divisions within the "All Okinawa" camp, a coalition of political parties, businesses and civic groups opposed to the Henoko relocation.

Takaichi said on Monday that the result reflected Okinawa residents' desire for economic growth and pledged to work with the new governor to strengthen the local economy.

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Kyodo News, citing sources, reported on Monday that the government and ruling parties were considering raising the fiscal 2027 Okinawa development budget to more than 300 billion yen ($1.93 billion), from about 260 billion yen since fiscal 2022 under Tamaki.

Following Koja's victory, the government plans to increase the budget while advancing the Henoko relocation and strengthening defense capabilities.

However, his win does not mean Okinawa has reached a consensus on the relocation. An NHK exit poll showed 53 percent of voters accepted the Henoko relocation, while 47 percent opposed it.

Koketsu said the issue's declining electoral importance did not mean its underlying problems were being resolved. Uncertainty remains over the Henoko project and Futenma's return, while construction is intertwined with local businesses, jobs and livelihoods, making it difficult to halt.

"Okinawa residents will continue struggling to find a way to address both 'war and the economy' and 'war and people's livelihoods'," he said.

Contact the writers at houjunjie@chinadaily.com.cn