Washington's approach is making alliance conditional despite show of unity: Experts

The recent NATO summit in Turkiye highlighted significant trans-Atlantic rifts, experts say, noting that Washington's increasingly transactional approach to its allies is making the alliance more utilitarian and conditional.

While trans-Atlantic security cooperation will continue under the NATO umbrella, contention over core issues, including defense industrial leadership and defense spending priorities, is set to intensify in the foreseeable future, they said.

NATO members unveiled tens of billions of dollars in new arms contracts at the Ankara summit, aiming to demonstrate the commitment to increasing military spending as per the United States' demands.

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However, US President Donald Trump remained critical of them, complaining about disproportionate US spending in the alliance, criticizing allies for not backing the Iran war, and reiterating his interest in acquiring Greenland. Nevertheless, in a stark reversal, Trump concluded the two-day gathering by praising NATO's "unity" and calling the summit a success.

A renewed commitment to the bloc's collective defense principle in the summit declaration is also seen as a key victory.

Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University's Academy of Regional and Global Governance, described the constant reiteration of collective defense as "abnormal".

"It indicates that the foundation of trust within the alliance is eroding," he said.

Sun Chenghao, head of the US-Europe Program at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, said Europe's increased arms procurement failed to bridge the deepening trans-Atlantic divide because the root cause is not the scale of procurement, but the fact that the US is trying to bundle security, trade, industry and geopolitical strategy together to reprice the alliance relationship.

"Trump emphasized unity after the summit, but during the summit itself, he criticized Spain, brought up the Greenland issue again and expressed dissatisfaction over Iran," he said. "This shows that the US is handling ally relations with an increasingly transactional logic."

Cui said the summit has transformed from a platform for trans-Atlantic coordination on global security issues into a stage where Europe deliberately caters to the US and demonstrates its "loyalty".

"This highly imbalanced dynamic cannot endure. Beneath this show of allegiance, Europe is adjusting its own role and ambitions within NATO," he said.

"For European countries, the US' repeated unilateral pressure on Greenland will deepen Europe's perception of the US' political unpredictability. Facing Washington's capricious attitude, the continent is compelled to focus on its own stance," he added. "The relationship is evolving into a 'business partner' model based on interest exchange, rather than a close alliance."

Responding to the changing landscape of trans-Atlantic relations and US pressure to increase military spending, Europe has accelerated the development of defense capabilities.

Last year, the European Union rolled out its "ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030" strategy, which utilizes mechanisms, such as Security Action for Europe, to bolster its defense industrial and technological base and reduce reliance on external supply chains.

Yet, at a news conference held after the Ankara summit, Trump made it clear that US arms manufacturers would be among the primary beneficiaries of Europe's accelerated military buildup.

He said other NATO members' defense spending had increased by nearly $150 billion last year, much of which would be used to purchase US-made equipment.

Both experts said that defense industrial dominance, the flow of defense funding and Europe's strategic autonomy may further exacerbate future US-Europe tensions.

Fundamental divergence

"The US wants Europe to increase military spending, but it demands that the money flow to US defense contractors, converting Europe's security dependence into US economic interests," Cui said. "This is in stark contrast to Europe's stated goal of achieving strategic autonomy in defense and security."

Sun echoed, saying that while the US pushes Europe to take on more defense responsibilities, its goal is not European independence but a more capable Europe still under US dominance.

"The US mainly wants Europe to share more costs, freeing US resources for the 'Indo-Pacific' and global competition," Sun said.

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"If Europe strengthens its own industry through initiatives like Security Action for Europe, the US would fear an exclusive defense market. Turkiye's call at the summit to lift defense restrictions further highlights internal NATO disagreements over market access and procurement rules."

Both experts said that US-Europe defense cooperation will continue, but the model will become increasingly instrumental.

"Europe's short-term dependence on the US for nuclear deterrence, intelligence and high-end military assets would persist; meanwhile, the US also relies on NATO to maintain Europe's security order," Sun said.

"Yet, the partnership is shifting. Security ties will remain, but intensified economic and industrial contention will characterize the relationship," he added.

Agencies contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at yangran1@chinadaily.com.cn