New report finds people across ASEAN prefer China, reversing the slim US lead

A slim majority of respondents across Southeast Asia would select China over the United States when choosing sides, an annual report by Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute showed.

When presented with a hypothetical choice between the two major economic powers, a total of 52 percent among the 2,008 respondents said they would choose China, compared with 48 percent choosing the US, according to the "State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report" issued on Tuesday.

This reverses the narrow US lead from last year's report.

Support for China is particularly strong in countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Timor-Leste, Thailand, and Brunei.

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Nearly 56 percent of respondents across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations said they see China as the most influential economic power in the region, far ahead of the 15.3 percent choosing the US.

China remains the most widely perceived political and strategic power in the region, followed by the US and ASEAN itself.

More than half of the survey respondents, or 51.9 percent, also identified the US leadership under President Donald Trump as their top geopolitical concern.

Respondents who foresee a deterioration in ASEAN's relations with the US emphasize the need for Washington to respect international law and its institutions and not undermine the global system.

Influence narrows

"This year's survey suggests that the foundations of US influence in Southeast Asia are gradually narrowing," said Joanne Lin, senior fellow and coordinator of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's ASEAN Studies Centre and an author of the survey.

Writing in a commentary on Fulcrum, the institute's news analysis site, on Wednesday, Lin said while this does not suggest that the region is turning away from the US, it does point to a more cautious assessment of Washington's regional role.

In a webinar held on Tuesday for the report launch, Scot Marciel, former US diplomat and senior adviser of consultancy Bower-GroupAsia, said the rising concern in Southeast Asia over US leadership under the Trump administration was due to the dramatic change in Washington's foreign policy, which has resulted in declining confidence in US reliability.

For example, the US imposition of high tariffs and flouting of international norms, as seen in Venezuela earlier this year, has injected uncertainty and caused economic turmoil in Southeast Asia, said Marciel.

Notably, Marciel said the survey was conducted between Jan 5 and Feb 20, before the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

"The US started the Iran conflict along with Israel, which obviously is having a major impact economically" on Southeast Asia, Marciel said, and "also raising concerns about what kind of role the US is playing in the region and in the world".

Generating prosperity

China has contributed significantly to prosperity in Southeast Asia and Asia generally, said Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank.

"China has generated prosperity and become the biggest partner for all ASEAN countries. And that boom is still continuing," said Wang, noting the need for China and ASEAN to enhance their cooperation.

Meanwhile, the report shows that expectations of improvement in relations with China are gaining ground across ASEAN, as 55.6 percent of respondents believe their country's relations with China will improve or improve significantly over the next three years, compared with only 32.8 percent seeing the region's relations with the US to be improved under the Trump administration.

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Some 43.4 percent of respondents chose the US use of sanctions, tariffs, and other trade measures to punish other countries as the main concern that could erode their positive impressions of the US.

This marked a notable shift toward geoeconomic anxieties as the primary source of unease regarding Washington's role in the region.

Besides the China-US competition, issues such as climate change, global scam operations, the South China Sea, Myanmar, Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, and ASEAN's future development were among the key topics that the respondents cared about, the report found.

Contact the writers at kelly@chinadailyapac.com