Hong Kong’s exports rebounded strongly in 2025, with both volume and value posting double-digit growth, as global demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing products boosted the city’s role as a re-export hub.
A continuing moderate expansion in the global economy and a temporary easing of trade tensions between China and the United States also favored a rebound in the city’s exports, though industry leaders remain divided over the sustainability of such tailwinds.
Total exports by volume rose 21.6 percent year-on-year in December, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth, according to the Census and Statistics Department on Thursday. For 2025 as a whole, export volume increased 12.8 percent compared with 2024.
In terms of value, the recovery was even stronger. Goods exports climbed 26.1 percent in December from a year earlier to HK$512.8 billion ($65.6 billion), official data released in late January showed. For the full year, the exports value rose 15.4 percent.
“Sustained global demand for AI-related and electronic products was the core driver behind the surge,” said Tommy Chung Ki-fung, a Hong Kong lawmaker representing the import-and-export sector.
Exports of “electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof” jumped 17.2 percent for the year, contributing HK$376.2 billion to the increase in total exports value, according to government figures.
The logistics mode provides further evidence of the AI-driven increase. In December, the value of exports by air from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region rose to HK$194.1 billion, up from HK$137.8 billion a year earlier, while sea shipments were broadly flat.
“This (air freight) pattern is typical of high-value, time-critical electronics and components moving at year-end,” said Kenny Shui, vice-president of think tank Our Hong Kong Foundation and executive director of its Public Policy Institute.
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Frontloading of shipments in response to tariff uncertainty also contributed to exports growth, Chung said. The volume of the HKSAR’s exports to the US jumped nearly 45 percent in December from a year earlier, following the launch of a one-year tariff suspension between Beijing and Washington in November.
But he cautioned that the effect could fade in 2026. Although Hong Kong exports posted stronger-than-expected performance in 2025, Chung said “it is not appropriate to call it ‘a full recovery’ for now”.
“More accurately, Hong Kong’s trade is entering a critical phase of AI-driven structural transformation, and the resilience of future growth remains to be seen.”
Meanwhile, beyond the short-term policy effects, Shui said the strong increase in US-bound exports reflected rising consumer demand. While export volumes surged by 44.6 percent in December, prices rose by only 1.3 percent.
“This relatively modest price increase suggests that the growth was volume-driven rather than purely inflation-driven, indicating genuine demand rather than just cost-push factors,” he said.
Exports to Taiwan expanded even more sharply, with volumes in December up 61.8 percent year on year. The spike, Shui said, is closely linked to the semiconductor and electronics supply chain.
Taiwan is a global leader in advanced chip manufacturing, while Hong Kong acts as a key logistics and trading hub for the movement of raw materials, semi-finished components and equipment between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, he added.
