When the founder of the now-defunct tabloid Apple Daily, Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, was convicted on Dec 15, 2025 of three charges including conspiracy to collude with external forces, Japan’s response was swift. The very next day, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki told reporters that Tokyo was “deeply concerned” about the impact on freedoms of speech, assembly, and association in Hong Kong.

One might reasonably ask: What does this have to do with Japan? The answer is simple — it has everything to do with Japan. Lai’s downfall is not merely a Hong Kong legal case; it is inseparable from a web of foreign connections. There was a British channel, an American channel and a Japanese channel. These were not incidental contacts but coordinated political efforts aimed at destabilizing Hong Kong.

During the trial, Andy Li Yu-hin, the fourth accomplice witness, testified extensively about Lai’s connections with Japanese politicians. Under questioning by prosecutors regarding the “Japan line”, Li said that in early 2020 he met with a Japanese House of Representatives member. The original plan was to discuss a so-called “democracy bill” drafted by members of Hong Kong organizations in Japan. However, Japanese politicians had already prepared a bill, which Li considered superior and ultimately agreed to support. According to Li, although the bill was not explicitly targeted at Hong Kong, it was designed so that if alleged human rights violations meeting certain thresholds were identified — including in Hong Kong — Japan could invoke the legislation as a deterrent mechanism. Li further confirmed that he actively lobbied other Japanese lawmakers to back the bill.

By the summer of 2020, Hong Kong organizations in Japan and several Japanese legislators jointly announced plans to introduce this proposed human rights legislation. Li testified that during the event, Agnes Chow, then a member of the pro-independence political organization Demosisto, appeared in a video message thanking Japan, urging support for the bill and calling for continued attention to Hong Kong. This, too, formed part of what prosecutors described as the broader foreign lobbying effort.

Japan’s military industrial system is precisely what emboldens right-wing Japanese politicians to push the “Taiwan contingency” notion and their military ambitions. The export controls are seen as a move to dismantle the support structure for and extinguish any lingering illusion about reviving militarism

Lai’s political affiliation with Japanese politicians did not end there. In a transcript of the Nov 12, 2020 interview program Live Chat with Jimmy Lai, Lai openly stated his belief that Japan had opportunities to form a closer strategic and military alliance with Taiwan. This was not a casual remark — it was a clear geopolitical statement with far-reaching implications.

Seen in this light, Japan’s anxiety over Lai’s conviction becomes entirely understandable. For years, Japanese right-wing politicians have vocally asserted that “a Taiwan contingency” could pose a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, implying potential Japanese military intervention. Last November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi openly promoted the “Taiwan contingency” notion. One cannot help but ask: If Lai is now in trouble, what does that mean for Japan? And what actions might follow?

Ironically, it is Lai himself who helped expose what some would prefer to keep hidden. By publicly asserting that Japan could move toward a tighter strategic and military alliance with Taiwan, he brought these ambitions into the open. Under such circumstances, it would be naive to expect others not to take precautions.

Earlier this month, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced tighter export controls on dual-use items that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. The author of an article published in a China Central Television-affiliated outlet supported the view that Japan’s military industrial system is precisely what emboldens right-wing Japanese politicians to push the “Taiwan contingency” notion and their military ambitions. The export controls are seen as a move to dismantle the support structure for and extinguish any lingering illusion about reviving militarism. If Japan’s military industrial industry is affected, it has only itself — and Lai — to blame. After all, it was Lai who openly articulated Japan’s military ambitions. History has taught Asia painful lessons. Preventing Japan from returning to the path of militarism is not about retaliation, but responsibility. It is a necessary step toward safeguarding long-term peace and stability in the region — and in the world at large. History must serve as a warning, not a footnote. Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

The author is a member of the Legislative Council and the UN Association of China.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.