Majority of respondents favor engagement, oppose tariffs and military conflict: Survey

The 2025 Chicago Council Survey found that politicians of the United States' embrace of disengaging from and limiting China is no longer in step with the majority of the US public.

The survey was conducted by Craig Kafura, director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, with data collected from July 18 to 30.

His findings showed that the US people's positive feelings toward China have grown 11 points on a scale of 100 since August 2024, and have rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.

More importantly, the survey found that a majority of US people — 53 percent — said that the US should undertake friendly cooperation and engagement with China, while 44 percent prefer a policy of actively limiting China's power growth.

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Based on the council's past surveys, this is the first time since 2019 that a majority of US people have preferred a policy of cooperation and engagement with China.

"I think this poll indicates that we may be starting to see a shift, and possibly a significant shift, in American public sentiment toward China," said David Firestein, president and CEO of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations.

"Admittedly, this poll is an outlier relative to most of the polling that we have seen produced by American public opinion firms over the last several years. But it may be a harbinger of a change in sentiment toward China that is a function of the emerging realization on the part of the American people that America's current approach to China is simply not working well for our country or our people," he said.

The survey also found that US people are divided over whether US-China trade weakens (48 percent) or strengthens (47 percent) US national security. It is a shift from public opinion during the pandemic, when 58 percent of US people believed it weakened US security.

In addition, about 54 percent of US people oppose higher tariffs on Chinese imports, and 66 percent favor reducing tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for China reducing its trade deficit with the US.

The survey found a party divide — more Democrats and independents favor cooperation with China, while more Republicans favor limiting China's influence.

"This overall shift is driven primarily by improving views among Democrats and independents," said Kafura in his report.

Despite the partisan gap, the survey found that the US people remain united in their top priority of avoiding conflict. A majority of US people — 62 percent — prioritize avoiding a military conflict with China.

As a former diplomat who has worked in the US Embassy in Beijing, Firestein has engaged the US public on China and the US-China relationship over the years.

"I have found, and said, for many years that the level of negativity the American people presumably or ostensibly feel toward China is not nearly as deep or as solid or as calcified as US political figures seem to believe that it is. This is a point that I've made for many years and this poll seems to vindicate this assertion," he said.

Firestein said the survey shows that the US people understand to a greater degree than they did before that the tariffs "are actually a US federal tax, and a heavy one, on the American people, first on importers and ultimately on consumers, that it's inflationary, job-killing and, on top of everything else, highly regressive and unfair".

Kafura shared a similar view when analyzing the results.

"Trade — a key issue in US-China relations — likely plays a significant role in shaping American attitudes on the US-China relationship more broadly. In particular, US President Donald Trump's trade policies have led many Americans to quickly reconsider their views on tariffs as a foreign policy tool," Kafura wrote.

To Firestein, this poll is an important data point suggesting that the US people understand the country has miscalibrated its policy toward China since Trump's first term and needs to make a course correction.

"I think the American people understand that our nation's relationship with China, while certainly having a major competitive element to it, is nonetheless of vital importance to the future of our country," he said.

"We have to do a better job formulating and implementing policies that actually achieve our own stated objectives and advance our nation's interests. That is not the situation that the American people are seeing now, and this poll reflects that."

"Ultimately, the people of this country want, and are best served by, a US-China relationship that is functional, constructive, results-oriented, mutually beneficial and politically sustainable," he concluded.

Contact the writers at mayzhou@chinadailyusa.com