Millions gain precious seconds as China strengthens seismic warning network

China's national earthquake early warning system, the world's largest, has issued alerts for more than 100 temblors with magnitudes above 3.5 since its completion last year, according to the China Earthquake Administration.

In an exclusive interview with China Daily, the administration said the system can provide alerts in about six to seven seconds after an earthquake hits key areas such as North China, the country's southeastern coast and Lhasa in the Xizang autonomous region, while other regions typically receive warnings within 10 to 20 seconds.

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The National Earthquake Intensity Rapid Reporting and Early Warning Project entered full operation in July last year, offering public earthquake alerts nationwide. As of now, the service covers more than 148 million users across all channels, the administration said.

The administration noted that over 70,000 earthquake warning service terminals have been deployed nationwide, a 483 percent increase from 12,000 last July. In provinces such as Yunnan, Fujian and Ningxia Hui autonomous region, more than 90 percent of primary and secondary schools have installed these terminals.

"This expansion means more residents across China can receive alerts from the world's largest earthquake early warning network," the administration said.

After earthquakes such as a 4.7 magnitude quake in Feidong, Anhui province, in September, and a 4.8 magnitude quake in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui autonomous region, in January, the system promptly sent warnings to hundreds of thousands of people near the epicenter.

"This effectively alleviated public panic and received high recognition from local governments and residents," the administration said.

After receiving a warning about the Yinchuan quake, the local railway operator implemented emergency controls on high-speed rail lines, avoiding potential risks, according to the administration.

The system also provides customized warning services to large State-owned and foreign enterprises in sectors such as energy and precision manufacturing, including China Southern Power Grid, China Huaneng Group and Samsung, to help ensure seismic safety within industrial and supply chains.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the 7.3 magnitude earthquake that struck Haicheng, Liaoning province. The event remains the only major earthquake in the world to have been successfully predicted with detailed documentation, according to the China Earthquake Administration's Institute of Earthquake Forecasting.

The quake struck on Feb 4, 1975, at 7:36 pm, impacting the economically developed and densely populated central-southern Liaodong Peninsula, including the cities of Anshan, Yingkou and Liaoyang. Most buildings in the area were not designed to withstand earthquakes, and the timing of the quake, on a winter evening when many residents were asleep, increased the risk of casualties.

However, Chinese scientists accurately predicted the quake and issued timely short-term warnings, enabling the organized evacuation of residents across affected areas. As a result, casualties were significantly reduced, with 1,328 deaths, according to Liaoning Earthquake Agency.

The Haicheng earthquake remains the only documented case where accurate prediction and mass evacuation significantly reduced loss of life and property, the agency said.

Last week, an international symposium on earthquake and risk prediction was held in Shenyang, Liaoning province, where experts reviewed the Haicheng experience and China's progress in earthquake forecasting over the past five decades. A scientific framework for continental earthquake prediction was also presented at the event.

The administration said that through decades of exploration and practice, China has developed an earthquake prediction system with "Chinese characteristics", proposing scientific methods for continental earthquake forecasting and establishing long-term, medium-term and short-term operational forecasts.

The system has achieved progress in reducing disaster risks, with long-term forecasts on a 10-year scale, medium-term forecasts on a one- to two-year scale and short-term forecasts spanning months to days, the administration said.

However, due to the inaccessibility of the Earth's interior and the complexity of seismic processes, earthquake prediction remains a global scientific challenge, the administration noted.

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"Currently, the level of scientific understanding and prediction capabilities for earthquakes still cannot meet the public's demand for earthquake safety," the administration said.

The China Earthquake Administration plans to focus on preventing major earthquakes and disasters, deepening understanding of earthquake mechanisms and advancing earthquake prediction efforts.

It will also promote new technologies to provide more precise location, magnitude and time predictions, according to the administration.

The administration added that it will explore artificial intelligence technologies to identify seismic anomalies and build large AI models to support earthquake prediction.

Contact the writer at jiangchenglong@chinadaily.com.cn