Despite ongoing global trade uncertainties, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) confirmed on Tuesday that Hong Kong is still on course for 3 percent growth in 2025, but the HKTDC Export Confidence index in the second quarter fell below 50 for the first time in a year.

Based on findings of two key HKTDC metrics — the 2025 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook, and the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 2Q25 — Hong Kong’s export resilience can be attributed to its low exposure to the US market, where exports accounted for only 6.5 percent of total exports in 2024.

In response to past tariff regimes, particularly during the first term of President Donald Trump (2017-21), local exporters in Hong Kong have diversified their trading bases, reducing reliance on US-bound exports, the HKTDC said.

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Notably, Hong Kong’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have risen by 38.5 percent since 2017, and those to the Middle East by 58.1 percent, based on statistics provided by the HKTDC.

With a strategic shift in sourcing practices, nearly half of Hong Kong’s US-bound exports now come from diverse international sources, up from 15 percent eight years ago, according to the HKTDC. This diversification means that only about 3.4 percent of total exports would be affected by reinstated high tariffs.

Commenting on the HKTDC’s forecast of 3 percent of export growth, Irina Fan, the council’s director of research, said: “Whatever the outcome of the ongoing trade negotiations, our low exposure to the US market, robust trade ties with other markets and diversified sourcing networks are the key underlying factors that should allow Hong Kong exporters to weather the US tariffs relatively unscathed.”

Despite the global impact of recent US tariffs, the effect on Hong Kong has been relatively low, Fan said. Hong Kong remains highly competitive, consistently ranking as one of the world’s top investment destinations, and the city is well-positioned to support international trade, she added.

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In line with the overall expectation that export performance would weaken as 2025 progresses, the overall reading for the HKTDC Export Confidence Index in the second quarter fell below 50 for the first time in a year. A reading below 50 reflects a pessimistic outlook.

Hong Kong’s exporter confidence dipped moderately in the second quarter of 2025 amid global trade uncertainty, with the Current Performance Index falling to 49.6 and Expectations Index to 49.0, based on statistics of HKTDC.

Hong Kong exporter confidence remained high regarding prospects in both ASEAN (59.9) and the Chinese mainland (52.6), while the corresponding reading for the US plummeted to 31.6 from 46.7.