East Asia needs long-term plans and policies to respond to shifts in population dynamics

Although the global population reached 8 billion in 2022, population growth continues to slow down. While the populations in some regions of the world are declining due to low fertility rates, more regions may go through the same experience in the near future, according to projections.

The global population will reach its peak sometime in the second half of the 21st century, after which it will start declining. Unlike half a century ago, the main driver of population growth is not births alone but also the longer life expectancy. With the total fertility rate falling below the replacement level in many countries, global population growth will further slow, and the proportion of children in the total population will gradually decline and that of people aged 65 or above will increase.

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Among the sub-regions of the world, the decline in the fertility rate in East Asia is particularly high. The region completed its demographic transition within half a century to enter an era of low fertility rate and population decline. The population growth rate in East Asia dropped below 1 percent in 1993, while the fertility rate fell below the replacement level. The prolonged low fertility rate has led to negative population growth in China and a couple of other East Asian countries, with features of the second demographic transition becoming prominent.

The population in Japan has been declining since 2011. In 2023, when the total population of East Asia was 1.66 billion, the total fertility rate was only 1.01 and the average life expectancy reached 78.9 years. Although projections vary in details, the trend of demographic changes is clear. A low fertility rate, population aging and negative population growth have become the “new normal” in East Asia.

The fertility rate in East Asia fell below the replacement level of 2.1 in the early 1990s; it has fallen further. The total fertility rate fell below 1 in South Korea in 2018. Japan had a slightly higher total fertility rate of about 1.21 in 2023. People’s decision to get married later and couples’ reluctance to have more children, or any children at all, are the main reasons behind the declining fertility rate.

Many countries, including Japan and South Korea, with low fertility rates have taken measures to encourage couples to have more children. But the result of such policy interventions and other efforts to increase the fertility rate has often not been satisfactory, showing that there is no single and simplistic solution to the issue.

Since the developed countries started experiencing population aging and stagnant population growth a few decades ago, they had much more time to formulate response policies and take measures to mitigate the negative effects of declining populations. However, most developing countries with low fertility rates and rapidly aging populations in the 21st century have to adapt to the rapid changes in a shorter period of time. As such, low or negative population growth and population aging will create bigger challenges for them.

The change in China’s population in the first two decades of the 21st century reflects a clear trend. The reduction in the number of births and increasing longevity are the main reasons behind population aging. Although fluctuations in annual population indicators are somewhat influenced by unexpected events, China’s population peaked in 2022, after which it has been declining, a phenomenon that is expected to continue.

Compared with a slower decline in the total population in the near future, the change in the population’s age structure will be more significant, and the percentage of children in the total population could soon be less than that of the elderly people.

The continuous decline in the number of births in recent years can be attributed mainly to women marrying at a later age and postponing childbirth. The introduction of childbearing support policies, including longer paid maternity leave, could encourage more couples to have more than one child. Yet, since the factors behind the negative population growth have been at play for decades, a short-term increase in the fertility rate will not have a significant impact on the trend of declining population.

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If the fertility rate remains below a certain level for long, the change in the population’s size and structure will largely depend on migration. The migration of people, mainly young and middle-aged people for work, will significantly change the size and age structure of the working-age population in their places of origin and destination, and its impact on the social and economic development of different regions will be different. At the same time, it will affect the marriage and childbirth decisions of the people. While a declining children’s population and an increasing elderly population have become the new normal, population mobility can alter the population structure and impact socioeconomic development of different regions.

With better understanding of the population dynamics of East Asia, and learning from the experiences of countries with low fertility rates, we can make long-term plans and policies to respond to the potential challenges brought about by population changes in the 21st century.

The author is a professor at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.