Adha Arico, a coffee planter in Indonesia’s Aceh province, has seen how extreme heat has affected his crops. Although his farm in the village of Suka Makmur is located in a highland area, which enjoys a relatively cooler temperature compared with low-lying areas, Arico said the weather has been hotter in the past few days. Arico’s coffee trees, while still bearing cherries despite the onset of the El Nino season, are producing beans that are “a bit less than in normal times”.

Coffee is one of Indonesia’s cash crops and counts Aceh, located at the western island of Sumatra, is one of the biggest coffee producing areas. To reduce the dry weather’s impact on their coffee harvest, Acehnese farmers like to intercrop their coffee trees with avocado trees as this helps lower the high temperature.

“We feel it here. People here know there are El Nino troubles in many parts of Indonesia,” Arico said.  

The onset of the El Nino has not only parched farmlands in Indonesia, but also affected some member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with temperatures hitting as much as 40 degrees Celsius in mid-March. The ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center has forecast that the region will have “above-normal temperature” this month, with “below-normal rainfall” expected for the Mekong Subregion.

Experts warned that a prolonged dry spell caused by the El Nino can cut food supply and commodity exports. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are among the world’s biggest agri-commodity exporters. Meanwhile, climate change has also intensified the heat wave, making it more urgent for governments to enforce policies that will mitigate the impact of extreme heat on farmlands and human health, the experts said.    

“A single dry spell doesn’t necessarily prove climate change, but it's a cause for concern, especially if it fits a pattern of increasing aridity,” said Jongsoo Shin, regional director for Asia at the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute.

Shin said the increased frequency and severity of dry spells could be linked to climate change, and this can significantly reduce the production of rice — a staple crop in Asia — as it is a water-intensive crop. He said lower production can also spike food prices and lead to food insecurity.

Siva Kumar Balasundram, head of the Department of Agriculture Technology at the Universiti Putra Malaysia, has estimated that a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature could reduce rice yield by up to 10 percent as the dry weather disrupts the process of nutrient uptake and photosynthesis. He said aridity and heat are ‘co-stressors’ that can also cut down the yield of other crops.

Balasunmdram said emerging technologies can mitigate the effects of El Nino. He said irrigation technologies powered by artificial intelligence can make a difference in delivering water to crops in a timely manner without wastage.

Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli, senior lecturer at the Department of Geography of the University of Malaya, said that the El Nino can lead to water shortage which cam hurt the agriculture sector and the public. As such both the governments and local communities must take proactive measures to mitigate the risks associated with extreme events. These include establishing early warning systems, promoting water conservation measures, investing in water storage infrastructure, and diversifying water sources through rainwater harvesting.

On a broader scale, Chenoli said ASEAN member states can develop regional policies to mitigate the impact of adverse weather events.

The dry season has increased saline intrusion in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region, reducing water supply for home consumption and irrigation. In Thailand, the Thai National Shippers' Council forecast that the drought will cut rice production by 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent and slash cassava, fruit and seafood exports this year, Thai newspaper The Nation reported. Indonesia has imported 650,000 metric tons of rice and has signed import contracts for another 350,000 tons to close the local shortage caused by the drought.

Leonardus Jegho in Jakarta contributed to this story.

Contact the writer at prime@chinadailyapac.com