The world is witnessing an accelerating paradigm shift in global governance, with a capricious international landscape that poses unparalleled challenges to the security and development of humanity.

The air in the West is now filled with the choking presence of  a looming major war. Military leaders from several Western countries have publicly foretold the occurrence of major warfare within the next five to eight years. For instance, on Jan 15, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps delivered a national defense policy address titled “Defending Britain from a more dangerous world”, in which he affirmed that in five years’ time Britain could be looking at multiple theaters involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). In an interview with Bloomberg at the 60th Munich Security Conference on Feb 17, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius conceded that he couldn’t predict if and when an attack on NATO territory might occur, but it could happen in five to eight years.

The United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and the Netherlands have each signed a 10-year bilateral security cooperation agreement with Ukraine in quick succession. French President Emmanuel Macron and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, moreover, asserted on separate occasions that NATO would engage in direct combat with Russia if necessary.

With the US confronted by daunting challenges in the political, economic and fiscal spheres, China is increasingly looked up to as a key pillar in global growth and stability

As Russia and Ukraine engage in an increasingly intricate and protracted war, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has worsened, threatening to spill over. The Israeli military’s indiscriminate bombing of innocent people in Gaza has not only outraged the world, but has also forced the US’ Biden administration to criticize the Netanyahu government of disregarding the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of its bellicose actions. In the foreseeable future, the crisis in the Middle East is likely to worsen rather than come to an end via a political solution.

In Northeast Asia, relations between the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have significantly deteriorated. In the East China Sea, Washington is intensifying its efforts to play the “Taiwan card”. In the South China Sea, Washington is whipping up hostility against China among certain Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states. In 2024, humanity will face the most critical choice between war and peace in history. Among all sovereign nations, China is the only country that has both the will and the power to safeguard peace in the world. The international community is following closely what strategies China will take in this regard. 

It’s been nearly two years since the COVID-19 pandemic receded. It was previously believed that global industrial and supply chains had been primarily disrupted by the pandemic. However, events in the past couple of years show that deglobalization, promoted by the US-led West under the banner of decoupling or de-risking, was the main reason. In 2024, the rivalry between China’s globalization campaign and the West’s decoupling campaign is getting hotter by the day, which could have profound implications for the global economy.

Meanwhile, the international community is divided on the prospects of the global economy. In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank released their latest analyses and forecasts on the global economy, revealing remarkably divergent perspectives.

The IMF set an optimistic tone in its World Economic Outlook Update in January, forecasting that “moderating inflation and steady growth open the path to a soft landing”, and “the risks to global growth are broadly balanced, and a soft landing is a possibility”. It projects a global growth rate at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the October World Economic Outlook. 

In contrast, the World Bank’s January publication of Global Economic Prospects asserted that “Global growth is set to slow further this year, amid the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy, restrictive financial conditions, and feeble global trade and investment”.

The current political and economic landscape of the US, the world’s biggest economy, is unnerving for the international community. The upcoming election is threatening to exacerbate social divisions in the country. At the same time, the US Federal government is in deep water financially. On March 1, CBS News unveiled the latest report by the Congressional Budget Office, which predicted that interest payments for federal government debt will soar to an astronomical $870 billion in the fiscal-year 2024 (from Oct 1, 2023 to Sept 30, 2024), surpassing military expenditure for the first time in its history. Worse, the US federal government’s fiscal condition could deteriorate further, constraining the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. With the US confronted by daunting challenges in the political, economic and fiscal spheres, China is increasingly looked up to as a key pillar in global growth and stability. This explains why China’s annual two sessions this year, which ended recently in Beijing, have attracted greater attention than before.  

The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.