In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sought to recalibrate European-China economic ties with a shift of focus from the previous “decoupling” to “de-risking”. Her de-risking notion was echoed a month later by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who said that the United States has no intention to decouple from China. It seems that “de-risking” has become a common strategy for the US-led West.

Interestingly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told Chinese officials in May that “the interests of the United States and China are intertwined like conjoined twins”. Tesla is opposed to any form of decoupling and seeks to expand its business in China to reap benefits from China’s development.

As an astute business leader, it is impossible for Musk not to understand what “conjoined twins” means when it comes to Sino-US economic ties. “Conjoined twins” need to be separated at some point of time for the well-being of both entities. A successful separation will ensure the pair’s survival, whereas the worst outcome will see both of them perish. Most likely, however, only one of them will survive and thrive. Following this logic, Musk could be suggesting that Sino-US economic ties, although inseparable in the near future, will eventually break up. The best outcome following the decoupling would be the formation of two major economic and trade blocs in the world.

Despite the denial of a decoupling strategy, de-risking goes hand in hand with decoupling, particularly in the areas of semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing, wherein US enterprises are barred from investing in Chinese businesses. Washington also exercises long-arm jurisdiction to prohibit foreign enterprises that use US technologies from trading with and investing in China.

Two months ago, credible sources revealed that the European Commission had come up with a list of 10 key technologies that should not fall into the hands of China, including those in the areas of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and biotechnology. It is said that the EU will officially unveil the list at the end of this year followed shortly by implementation in January.

Clearly the West intends to contain China in the advanced technology sector, which is a “decoupling” move in effect, whereas it will maintain trade and economic ties with China in some other areas on the premise of not relying on the Chinese market and capital, which is “de-risking”.

It is in the interests of both China and the US to maintain stable trade ties, which will help keep a significant portion of the global supply chain stable and promote global economic recovery

Washington has recently demonstrated how to “de-risk” with regard to China. In November, the US Department of Agriculture organized a group of representatives from 15 food companies and two state governments to take part in the 6th China International Import Expo for the first time. While US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns and acting deputy undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs Jason Hafemeister attended the opening ceremony of the American Food and Agricultural Pavilion at the expo, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen published an article in the Washington Post claiming that there is a way for the US to compete with China and to cooperate with China. Given the fact that agricultural trade between the two countries exceeded $50 billion with US agricultural exports to China reaching a record $42 billion in 2022, Hafemeister affirmed that “the Chinese market is very important, and it has a lot of growth potential”.

While the US-led West has determined to exclude China from its advanced-technology sector to hinder China’s development, it still covets the Chinese market for its low-end products and counts on China’s ordinary merchandise. For this reason, it has not stopped exporting mid- to low-end merchandise and technologies to China, and continues to import ordinary merchandise from China. Without these Chinese exports, the West can hardly maintain normal economic operations and fulfill the needs of its citizens. For the West, economic performance will take priority in an election year as a means to garner votes for the ruling party, and that explains the US’ recent efforts to improve trade ties with China. Nevertheless, driven by an obsession with ideological rivalry, the US-led West will continue to pursue decoupling from China in the advanced-technology sector. The decoupling is set to further expand to cover all aspects as they strive to minimize bilateral ties in the middle- to low-end industries to achieve de-risking.

China is set to further open up its market and is ready to maintain or expand its economic and trade ties with the West. It is in the interests of both China and the US to maintain stable trade ties, which will help keep a significant portion of the global supply chain stable and promote global economic recovery. Looking ahead to 2024, given the worsening geopolitical landscape and the upcoming US presidential and congressional elections, the US’ trade policy is likely to swing between “decoupling” and “de-risking”.

The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.