This photo taken on May 9, 2023 shows Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) and his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail arriving at the Komodo International airport ahead of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held in Labuan Bajo. (PHOTO / AFP)
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government is facing its first crucial test as the dissolution of six state assemblies paves the way for state elections, possibly as early as August.
Kedah, Penang and Terengganu’s state legislative assemblies were officially dissolved on June 28, while Kelantan and Selangor’s state assemblies were dissolved on June 22 and June 23, respectively. Negeri Sembilan will dissolve its state assembly on July 1.
The impending state elections could be held just nine months after a general election that resulted in a hung parliament. This pushed Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) party, which won the most votes, to build a coalition government with its erstwhile rival the United Malays National Organization (UMNO).
Former PM and PN leader Muhyiddin Yassin said his party is ready to capture seats in the other three election states. PH leads Negeri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor
Wong Chin Huat, a political scientist at the Kuala Lumpur-based Sunway University, said the upcoming elections will act as “a referendum on the political stability” of the unity government.
Wong said these will be the first mid-term elections to involve about 45 percent of Malaysia’s 21.1 million electorate.
He said Malaysians will vote based not only on their assessment of the candidates for the local elections but also on what the federal government and the opposition offer.
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Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah are strongholds of the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Former prime minister and PN leader Muhyiddin Yassin said his party is ready to capture seats in the other three election states. PH leads Negeri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor.
Wong said PN, which counts the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) as an ally, will “continue to play up ethnoreligious issues” to appeal to Malay Muslim voters. Malays are the majority in the ethnically diverse nation. He said PH has a more “pluralist and liberal” voter base.
Hafidzi Razali, associate director for Malaysia at Bower Group Asia, said the upcoming elections will serve as the unity government’s “litmus test among the Malay voter base”.
He said the results of the election will determine if the unity government’s narrative of political stability resonates with voters in urban and semi-urban areas.
Hafidzi expects PAS to continue to dominate in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and mainland Penang, while PN may reduce PH’s majority in Selangor.
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He said the election outcome in Selangor is the most crucial given that the West Malaysian state is the most industrialized, populous, and ethnically diverse state. The election results in Selangor could serve as an indicator of the general sentiment in the urban areas.
Malaysian state elections are usually conducted along with the general elections. But all of Malaysia’s 13 states can independently dissolve their assemblies.
This is why during the November 2022 general elections, only Pahang, Perak and Perlis dissolved their state assemblies and held their state elections. Johor, Melaka, Sabah and Sarawak held their state elections before the general elections.
Chin Yew Sin, a Malaysian businessman and political analyst, said corruption and cost of living issues, combined with concerns related to the voters’ ethnicity and religion, will be the deciding factors in the August state elections.
“In a (multi-ethnic) country like Malaysia, (ethnicity) and religious issues will always be played up during any election,” Chin said.
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He said voters living in urban areas are more concerned with corruption and human rights issues, while religion and cost of living issues top the concerns of rural voters.
Yeah Kim Leng, director of the Economic Studies Program for the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia at Sunway University, said that the outcome of state elections will be viewed as a “gauge of the public acceptance of the unity government” but will not be decisive on its future.
“Even if the ruling coalition were to lose the states under its control, the federal government under the unity government is expected to remain intact following the promulgation of anti-hopping law enacted prior to the last general election,” he said.
Yeah expects the ruling coalition to accelerate the pace of structural and institutional reforms and focus more on the economic agenda after the state elections.
