BEIJING - China's 2025 box office is poised to cross a crucial milestone during the National Day holiday window, with the year-to-date cumulative gross set to overtake 2024's full-year total of 42.5 billion yuan (about $5.98 billion) as holiday releases flood cinemas across the country.

The market enters the holiday frame with 2025's cumulative total already reaching approximately 42 billion yuan as of Tuesday -- just 500 million yuan shy of last year's final tally. With the arrival of two fresh releases on Tuesday -- Chen Kaige's war epic The Volunteers: Peace at Last and comedy offering Row to Win -- and the official start of the eight-day National Day holiday on Oct 1, the 2025 box office is expected to surpass 2024's total nearly three months before year's end.

The biggest single driver of 2025's surge has been Ne Zha 2, which opened during the Chinese New Year holiday and has amassed more than 15.4 billion yuan domestically, accounting for over a third of the annual gross to date.

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Other major contributors include Detective Chinatown 1900 at 3.6 billion yuan, as well as summer box office leaders Dead to Rights at 3 billion yuan and Nobody at 1.6 billion yuan, with the latter becoming the highest-grossing 2D animated film in Chinese history.

September standout Evil Unbound -- a film depicting the atrocities committed by Japan's notorious Unit 731 during World War II -- closed the month with 1.5 billion yuan, making it the fifth-highest earner of the year.

China's box office has been navigating a bumpy recovery path since 2019 when the yearly revenue peaked at a record-breaking of more than 64 billion yuan. After a 2023 rebound to 54.9 billion yuan, annual grosses retreated again in 2024 to 42.5 billion yuan. There is cautious optimism among industry watchers that 2025 could climb past 50 billion yuan, given the current momentum heading into the final quarter.

Holiday lineup dynamics

According to data from ticketing platform Maoyan, new films scheduled for the National Day holiday had generated more than 100 million yuan in pre-sales and previews by noon on Tuesday. Early frontrunners are crime thriller Sound of Silence; The Volunteers: Peace at Last, the final entry in Chen Kaige's trilogy, following two earlier installments that together grossed over 2 billion yuan; and A Writer's Odyssey II, a sequel to the 2021 fantasy-action hit that topped 1 billion yuan.

The lineup also features live-action comedy Row to Win, historical animated feature Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes, crime thrillers The Return of the Lame Hero and Sons of the Neon Night, and a re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water.

Despite a crowded release slate, the holiday season is "still lacking a true tentpole to really fire up the market," said Lai Li, a Maoyan analyst. "This year's holiday runs one day longer than usual, which may help word-of-mouth-driven titles build legs. Strong reviews could still push the slate toward an outsized performance."

IP-driven expansion

Analysts also highlight the growing weight of sequels and franchise-building in the Chinese market. "Sequels, franchises and IP-based films are becoming mainstream," said Chen Jin, an analyst at film data platform Beacon. "'The Volunteers' concludes a trilogy that has already drawn nearly 50 million admissions. 'A Writer's Odyssey II' extends a successful commercial property, and 'Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes' is clearly designed to launch a new franchise."

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This trend reflects a push toward greater industrialization and maturity in the Chinese film industry, Chen added, echoing Hollywood's long-standing reliance on IP as a driver of repeat viewership.

Despite uneven performances in earlier release windows this year -- a record Lunar New Year followed by a weak May Day and a steady summer -- the National Day frame could prove pivotal in confirming the strength of the 2025 recovery.

With the annual total poised to surpass last year's figure within days, all eyes are now on whether China can cross the symbolic 50-billion-yuan threshold, further cementing its standing as one of the world's most dynamic box offices.