Mindset of countering China, bloc politics stymies Tokyo’s goal of closer ties with Global South

(SONG CHEN / CHINA DAILY)

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent visits to four African states — Egypt, Ghana, Kenya and Mozambique — were to rally support from the Global South, including African countries, for the West ahead of the G7 summit to be held in Hiroshima. During his African trip, Kishida emphasized the so-called rules-based international order, which might also be Japan’s keyword for the coming summit.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in early 2022, Japan has seen a dramatic change in its strategic thinking, with its self-positioning shifting from being a bridge between the West and Asia to a link connecting the West with the Global South. In its latest Diplomatic Bluebook, Japan included the term “Global South” for the first time and recognized that the world is going through a historic transformation.

This indicates that Japan has woken up to the rise of developing countries and also that Tokyo’s strategy divides the world into three major blocs — the United States, Europe and Japan; China and Russia; and the Global South. 

It marks a misconception of the global political landscape, which does a disservice to Japan’s ambition to play a larger role in global affairs, and also hinders the country’s efforts to expand its strategic space.

First, the view oversimplifies the real world and lacks appeal in global society. Regarding the Ukraine conflict, Japan’s position, in line with its Western allies, is isolating Russia diplomatically and sanctioning it economically. 

Beyond Ukraine, climate change, energy security, and sustainable development are also pressing challenges facing humanity. For most countries, forcing them to toe the line of the West on the Ukraine issue is simply not in their interests.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is in essence a security crisis for Europe, with much of the rest of the world not directly involved. It is first and foremost the European countries that should reflect on the crisis and try to find a solution to it. Earlier this year, many countries that attended the Davos World Economic Forum voiced their discontent about the event’s excessive focus on the Ukraine issue and Europe’s security.

Second, “Global South” and “rules-based international order” have been the two keywords in Japan’s diplomacy narrative over the past year. This indicates that Japan has reassessed the “value diplomacy” Washington peddles around the world and adjusted accordingly. Also, it reflects Japan’s desire to woo the support of the Global South by forging a new narrative, which labels Russia as the biggest violator of international law and a disruptor of the global order, and portrays China as a saboteur of the order in East Asia.

However, countries have witnessed how the US-led West flagrantly violated international law in the Kosovo War, Iraq War and other wars they were engaged in, and the consequent grave human and economic costs suffered by the countries affected. They have also witnessed the West’s abuse of economic sanctions and trade protectionism which has violated international rules and exposed the double standards. All of these have weakened Japan’s proposal to build “rules-based international order”.

Third, in Japan’s worldview, the globe is divided into two confronting blocs, one led by the West and one led by China and Russia, while the Global South is merely regarded as a political arena the two blocs are racing to woo support from. This view ignores the endogenous dynamics inside the Global South. According to Japan’s view, China’s efforts to forge ties with developing countries are regarded as filling the strategic vacancy left by the West and expanding its influence. 

Japan’s role in global affairs is defined as swaying the Global South to the Western bloc and curbing China’s influence. But this mindset of countering China will obstruct Japan from seeing the demands of developing countries to solve their security problems and promote their development.

In March, Middle East rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia decided to resume their diplomatic relations under a China-brokered deal, which Japan saw as China filling the void after the West’s withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. 

In fact, it was an outcome of the war-torn region’s desire to seek peace and development after years of war due to interventions from non-regional major powers. China successfully mediated by establishing political mutual trust and enduring economic partnerships with regional countries, which is in line with the trend of the times and caters to the aspiration for peace of countries in the Middle East.

As a major importer of energy from the Middle East, Japan once maintained good relationships with countries in the region, including Iran and Saudi Arabia. It could have played a positive role in brokering peace in the Middle East together with China. However, due to its mindset of bloc confrontation, Japan lacks the strategic vision of joining hands with China for political cooperation in a third country and other regions, which has corroded its potential diplomatic assets in the Global South, thus shrinking its strategic space.

As the world is undergoing a historic transformation, the major driving force in global politics is the rise of developing countries and their growing participation in global governance, rather than the bloc confrontations between major countries and their scramble for the Global South. 

Japan is misjudging the general trend by dividing the world into confronting blocs. International society is not merely an enlarged version of the Western bloc. Facing the common challenges for humanity, the world is embarking on a historical process of jointly building a global political community, of which multipolarity will be an inevitable result. Japan should follow the trend of the times and promote its development.

The author is an associate professor of international relations at Niigata University in Japan and a senior visiting scholar at the Free University of Berlin. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.