Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has been consistent in curbing the spread of the virus through its dynamic zero-COVID policy. You don’t need a political science expert to tell you that the most fundamental reason for governments to exist is to protect the lives and property of their citizens. If we judge from this perspective, we will come to the conclusion that dynamic zero-COVID has been the most successful approach of all national-level pandemic prevention and control policies for the obvious reason. Dynamic zero-COVID has managed to prevent the death toll from soaring in China as it did in some countries that had ineffective pandemic prevention and control policies. China’s approach has effectively protected the lives of the people.

To manage a large country with a population of more than 1.4 billion is anything but simple. To strike a balance between maintaining sustainable economic development and protecting people’s lives while taking cost-effectiveness into consideration, China has recently begun to review its COVID-19 handling strategies. In order to meet the fast pace of the post-pandemic world, moving away from a dynamic zero-COVID approach to the next stage, and eventually returning to normality, is now the most reasonable way forward.

But moving away from the dynamic zero-COVID policy is a challenge. The switch might be easy to announce, but when it is actually carried out, it must be done with great care. There is no doubt that it is necessary for China to drop the dynamic zero-COVID policy, but what is more important is that the country and its people get back to normality safely. If the following requirements are successfully met, it is very likely that China can safely move on from its dynamic zero-COVID policy.

But moving away from the dynamic zero-COVID policy is a challenge. The switch might be easy to announce, but when it is actually carried out, it must be done with great care. There is no doubt that it is necessary for China to drop the dynamic zero-COVID policy, but what is more important is that the country and its people get back to normality safely. If the following requirements are successfully met, it is very likely that China can safely move on from its dynamic zero-COVID policy

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First of all, within one to two months before the complete withdrawal from the present pandemic prevention and control measures, members of the public must be vaccinated with the fourth-dose heterologous booster. For all age groups, the vaccination rate must reach 85 percent or above before the green light is given for a complete withdrawal. Second, timely antiviral treatment should reach 60 percent or above. Finally, it is necessary to implement appropriate large-scale antiviral treatment, public health and social measures in order to significantly reduce the transmission rate of the virus.

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We must bear in mind, however, that in the short term, after the withdrawal of all pandemic prevention and control measures, the country will inevitably experience some sort of pain. For instance, the demand for hospitalizations may surge, soaring to 1.5 to 2.5 times the overall hospital capacity, which is about 2.2 per 10,000 population per day. Yet, all such shocks are likely to be temporary in nature. With an 85 percent vaccination rate with the fourth-dose heterologous booster and a 60 percent timely antiviral treatment coverage, the cumulative mortality burden should be reduced by between 26 percent and 35 percent. That translates to about 500 per million people.

As we move away from dynamic zero-COVID, we must not perceive the policy in any negative way. What we should bear in mind, instead, is that when the pandemic situation in many countries around the globe was getting out of control and the number of deaths rose dramatically, it was the central government’s insistence on adopting the dynamic zero-COVID policy that prevented a similar situation from arising in China. So, we can conclude that the policy has played its role in effectively protecting the lives of China’s citizens.

Now, of course, the problem to be dealt with has become more complicated than before. What Beijing has to consider is how to return to normality without jeopardizing the lives of the people and the medical system. We can all see that the central government is seriously preparing for any possible scenarios that may arise in society after lifting the pandemic prevention and control measures. The authorities’ ultimate goal is to restore social mobility and economic vitality as soon as possible, to stimulate the development of the economy and people’s livelihoods, and to let people enjoy normal life.

To reduce the intensity of the anticipated pain in the initial stage of normalization, the central government can refer to situations in other countries around the world to find out the relationship between the death rates from COVID-19 and the ages and physical conditions of the people. That way, the central government can concentrate its efforts on protecting the health of those in high-risk groups. For example, local governments should search for the elderly who suffer from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cancer, immune deficiency and other chronic diseases. Paying special attention to the vaccination status of these particular groups can help avoid possible pressure on the medical system as the country moves toward normality.

Normalization will mean restarting China’s economic development. With the pandemic prevention and control measures in place, business trips in China have been severely restricted. Also, people doing business have found taking business trips between domestic cities extremely difficult. As a result, many foreign corporations have had no other option but to cancel or reduce the number of staff attending trade fairs held in China. After three years of anti-pandemic restrictions, many businesses are struggling to survive and can no longer endure anti-pandemic restrictions. The exit from a stringent anti-pandemic regime is therefore timely and imperative. 

The author, a radiologist, is a co-founder of the Hong Kong Coalition and a council member of the Chinese Young Entrepreneurs Association.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.