This image grab taken from a video released by the Royal Thai Government on June 16, 2021 shows Thailand's Prime Minister Prayut Chan-Ocha in Bangkok making an announcement on plans to reopen Thailand. (HANDOUT / ROYAL THAI GOVERNMENT / AFP)
Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha is expected to survive his third no-confidence vote, but how he deals with COVID-19 will remain a big challenge for the stability of his government, experts say.
"The upcoming no-confidence vote will not bring down Prayut's government because now it still has strong support from businesses, especially the CP Group," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand. The Charoen Pokphand Group is one of Thailand's biggest conglomerates.
Thailand's opposition parties, led by Pheu Thai Party leader Sompong Amornvivat, submitted a censure motion targeting PM Prayut Chan-ocha and five cabinet ministers on Aug 16, according to local media The Nation. The censure debate is expected to take place within August or early September
Thailand's opposition parties, led by Pheu Thai Party leader Sompong Amornvivat, submitted a censure motion targeting Prayut and five cabinet ministers on Aug 16, according to local media The Nation. The main focus was on the government's dissatisfactory COVID-19 responses, slow vaccine rollout, alleged related corruption, and mismanagement of the economy.
The censure debate is expected to take place within August or early September. Along with Prayut, the motion targets Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob, Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Chalermchai Sri-on, Labor Minister Suchart Chomklin, and Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn.
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It marked the third no-confidence test for Prayut's government since the 2019 general election, the first poll since Prayut seized power in the 2014 coup as the army chief.
"Given that the government has been slow, relative to other countries, in responding to COVID-19, while the number of COVID-19 cases has grown, then it is understandable that people are frustrated with Prayut since he is the head of the government," said Paul Chambers, lecturer and advisor for international affairs of Naresuan University's Centre of ASEAN Community Studies in Thailand.
But echoing Titipol's view, Chambers said Prayut will "most assuredly" survive again for the third time as his coalition government has more members in Parliament than the opposition.
"If another government was in office, there is no guarantee that a COVID-19 policy would be so much more effective," Chambers said.
"The strategy the opposition uses is that they select all the big names from the key main party of the coalition," said Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist with King Prajadhipok's Institute, a think tank affiliated with the Thai Parliament. This approach, he said, will unite the coalition more than create conflicts.
The no-confidence vote will make people outside Parliament re-evaluate the government's performance once again, Stithorn said, adding that how Prayut's government handles the COVID-19 outbreak will be critical for his remaining term.
Anti-government protesters block a road with cars and motorcycles in Bangkok, Thailand, Aug 15, 2021. Protesters demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha for his failure in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. (ANUTHEP CHEYSAKRON / AP)
"The worst scenario for him is when the cases increase, for example, to 50,000 or 100,000 (per day) … he might have to make the decision (to resign) himself," said Stithorn.
The Southeast Asian country reported 20,902 new COVID-19 cases and 301 new fatalities on Aug 19, according to data released by its public health ministry. The national tally by then had reached 989,859, with over 960,000 reported in the latest wave that began in April. The government has decided to extend lockdown measures until the end of August.
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The worsening pandemic fuelled by the Delta variant, as well as extended lockdown measures, have cast a shadow on the country's economic performance
The worsening pandemic fuelled by the Delta variant, as well as extended lockdown measures, have cast a shadow on the country's economic performance.
The National Economic and Social Development Council, Thailand's state economic planning agency, slashed on Aug 16 its full-year growth projection for 2021 to a range between 0.7 and 1.2 percent from a previous outlook range of between 1.5 and 2.5 percent.
The country's GDP in the second quarter rose 0.4 percent from the first, but market analysts expect the growth to fall back in the third quarter due to rising COVID-19 infections and additional restrictions.
Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said the country will need a further one trillion baht (US$29.9 billion) to help the virus-hit economy, according to Reuters.
Titipol from the Ubon Ratchathani University said he expects the COVID-19 situation to improve as the government is now working to obtain more vaccines.
Thailand's public health ministry said on Aug 17 that it will purchase an additional 12 million doses of China's Sinovac vaccine to combat the Delta variant, according to Bangkok Post. The decision came after a study by the ministry showed Sinovac vaccine is 98 percent effective in preventing critical illness and death caused by COVID-19 and 72 percent effective in stopping COVID-19 infections.
"Once the situation gets better, it will also help the government with its reputation," Titipol said.
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"To change leaders during the pandemic is not a preferred choice even though there are dissatisfactions," said Kavi Chongkittavorn, a senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand. He said the number of supports for Prayut could be different in the third no-confidence vote.
Besides the pandemic, Kavi said the country is facing multiple challenges. For example, the Myanmar crisis could further destabilize Thailand if there is a great influx of people fleeing conflicts following the military takeover on Feb 1.
Titipol said he does not expect any elections or dissolution of the party to take place soon. The popularity of such opposition parties as the Move Forward Party has been rising among the younger generation, and the number of young voters is increasing – a fact that the government is fully aware of.
"This is what the coalition parties are concerned (about). Because even the Democrat Party still cannot mobilize the support from the younger generation," said Titipol.
